1410 E 21st Ave · Tampa, FL 33605

$329,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1921

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE. This Ybor city home suffered fire damage in 2002 and was completely refurbished. You are buying a young home with old charm and convenience of last century's homes. Walking distance to Republica de Cuba Ave excellent location!! One year Home Warranty.

Key facts

• Historical home
• Large front porch
• 10 foot ceilings

Tags

• HISTORICAL HOME
• 10 FOOT CEILINGS
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• LARGE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,072/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 633% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $329k implies a 648% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,155 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.87%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $190,778
• Equity at exit: $296,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $533,428
• Equity at exit: $639,175

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,201/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,695

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	16d	1	0.06mi
1003 E 19th Ave Unit 1053143P Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	1614	$4,674	$2.90	3d	1	0.39mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	16d	1	0.39mi
3601 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,550	$1.42	24d	1	0.44mi
916 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,600	$1.70	10d	1	0.44mi
2904 Banza St Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2031	$3,200	$1.58	24d	1	0.45mi
2203 E 23rd Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,900	$1.54	17d	1	0.53mi
2825 N Taliaferro Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1484	$3,500	$2.36	24d	1	0.59mi
515 E Adalee St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,650	$1.71	5d	1	0.68mi
2504 E 12th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	5d	1	0.86mi
2312 E 10th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	17d	1	0.86mi
2904 N Jefferson St Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2078	$4,400	$2.12	5d	1	0.87mi
2312 E 8th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,500	$1.76	11d	1	0.93mi
2610 E Lake Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.94mi
4114 N Nebraska Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	5.0	2824	$3,850	$1.36	24d	1	0.95mi
211 E Adalee St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2334	$4,500	$1.93	14d	1	0.97mi
210 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2050	$3,995	$1.95	5d	1	0.99mi
2607 Lindell Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,395	$1.65	2d	1	1.00mi
1108 E Chelsea St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$3,250	$1.99	24d	1	1.02mi
807 E Genesee St Unit 1/2 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,400	$1.70	21d	1	1.06mi
807 E Genesee St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,400	$1.70	20d	1	1.06mi
3114 E 21st Ave Unit 1328494P Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$4,889	$3.03	5d	1	1.08mi
102 W Adalee St #4 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.5	2175	$4,950	$2.28	24d	1	1.11mi
1218 E Kay St #8 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.5	2109	$5,000	$2.37	17d	1	1.11mi
2910 N Ola Ave Unit 1300725P Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	2206	$4,334	$1.96	3d	1	1.27mi
210 W Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	4.0	2450	$5,795	$2.37	24d	1	1.28mi
1120 E Twiggs St Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$3,455	$3.05	1d	29	1.29mi
3002 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	24d	1	1.35mi
2615 E Curtis St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,850	$1.18	20d	1	1.42mi
2110 N Ola Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1106	$4,242	$3.84	1d	19	1.44mi
3916 N Ola Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1673	$3,200	$1.91	17d	1	1.44mi
405 W Frances Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,350	$1.91	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $329,000 Active 504-char remark
4. 2012-10-26
   soldstatus $44,000 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   SHORT SALE. This Ybor city home suffered fire damage in 2002 and was completely refurbished. You are buying a young home with old charm and convenience of last century's homes. Walking distance to Republica de Cuba Ave excellent location!! One year Home Warranty.

5. 2012-08-19
   listed $44,900 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   SHORT SALE. This Ybor city home suffered fire damage in 2002 and was completely refurbished. You are buying a young home with old charm and convenience of last century's homes. Walking distance to Republica de Cuba Ave excellent location!! One year Home Warranty.

6. 2012-08-18
   historical
7. 2009-10-19
   listed $44,900
8. 1991-12-01
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,201
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,949
• − Management: −$2,949
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$1,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$452
• After-tax cash flow: $4,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2012-10-26 Sold (MLS) $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-19 Listed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-19 Listed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,201 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.