234 Cochran Pl · Valley Stream, NY 11581

$449,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1925 5,160 sqft lot Est $702k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY IN GIBSON. Positioned in the highly sought-after Gibson section of Valley Stream, 234 Cochran Place presents a rare "blank canvas" opportunity for visionary builders and seasoned investors. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence is a total gut renovation project, offered strictly as a cash-only purchase. While the home requires full remediation and a complete rehab, its potential is unmatched given the premier location. Residents will enjoy effortless lifestyle convenience with the Gibson LIRR station just moments away, offering a seamless commute into the city. Bring your architect and your contractor to reimagine this space from the ground up and capitalize on the

Key facts

• As-is condition
• Proven neighborhood
• Cash-only purchase

Tags

• CASH-ONLY PURCHASE
• TOTAL GUT RENOVATION
• FULL REMEDIATION
• COMPLETE REHAB
• AS-IS CONDITION
• PROVEN NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $438k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Stream — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#13 in NY, #301 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Valley Stream Central High School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #78 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Robert W Carbonaro School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 369 students, 38% FRL); Valley Stream Memorial Junior High School (math 29% / reading 66%, grade C-, #306 of 729 statewide, top 43%, 1,038 students, 40% FRL); Valley Stream South High School (math 80% / reading 80%, grade A, #510 of 1,100 statewide, top 47%, 1,224 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $449k implies a 1147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,998 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $702,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Pershing Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,318 (+3%)	3mo	$770,000	$584	85
75 Peninsula Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-2%)	3mo	$600,000	$476	71
88 Spruce Ln	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,161 (-10%)	1mo	$650,000	$560	70
33 Dartmouth St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,439 (+12%)	4mo	$651,000	$452	66
53 Lee Ave	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,298 (+1%)	1mo	$985,000	$759	61
144 Fairfield St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-12%)	2mo	$620,000	$547	60
69 Forest Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,361 (+6%)	0mo	$699,000	$514	60
86 Oceanview Ave	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+3%)	0mo	$672,000	$508	55
59 Holly Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (-11%)	2mo	$710,000	$622	49
95 Horton Ave	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (+10%)	1mo	$700,000	$498	48
431 Franklin Ave	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-14%)	1mo	$635,000	$577	39
61 Harris Ave	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,474 (+15%)	3mo	$780,000	$529	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-76,471
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-71,004
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11581

• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$679 /mo · $8,144/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,076

Max offer price $438,332

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $67	+0% $-60	+5% $-187	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-218	+0% $-60	+5% $98	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $54	base $-60	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Dubois Ave Apt 3C Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.5	1050	$3,400	$3.24	45d	1	0.08mi
19 Dartmouth St Valley Stream, NY	3.0	3.5	1439	$4,600	$3.20	0d	1	0.14mi
35 Gibson Blvd Unit 2 Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	1150	$3,900	$3.39	0d	1	0.26mi
66 Kenmore Rd Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	1525	$2,950	$1.93	20d	1	0.41mi
127 Gordon Rd Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,350	$2.79	45d	1	0.46mi
132 Roosevelt Ave Valley Stream, NY	3.0	2.0	1010	$4,300	$4.26	0d	1	0.54mi
363 Hewlett Pkwy Hewlett, NY	3.0	1.5	1205	$4,200	$3.49	26d	1	0.69mi
125 S Cottage St Valley Stream, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$4,285	$3.75	0d	7	0.76mi
92 Wavecrest St Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,800	$2.33	26d	1	0.76mi
61 Hollywood Ave Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1825	$3,000	$1.64	45d	1	0.77mi
70 S Cottage St Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.5	1290	$4,000	$3.10	0d	1	0.82mi
309 Franklin Ave Hewlett, NY	4.0	2.0	1386	$6,500	$4.69	0d	1	0.86mi
35 S Franklin Ave Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.5	1692	$5,500	$3.25	24d	1	0.90mi
65 Prospect Ave Apt 15W Lynbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,680	$3.47	24d	1	1.03mi
353 W Jamaica Ave Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	928	$2,800	$3.02	3d	1	1.06mi
26 Starks Pl Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.5	1822	$3,850	$2.11	3d	1	1.10mi
227 Franklin Pl Woodmere, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,400	$3.58	45d	1	1.17mi
103 E Saint Marks Pl Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	1758	$3,700	$2.10	0d	1	1.20mi
362 W Merrick Rd Unit 101 Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	906	$3,695	$4.08	20d	1	1.24mi
23 Thompson Pl Unit 2 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$3,100	$3.44	20d	1	1.30mi
2 Leach St Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.0	1710	$3,300	$1.93	45d	1	1.35mi
14 Endview Ave Lynbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,650	$3.02	45d	1	1.40mi
58 Cohill Rd Unit 1F Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $449,000
3. 2026-03-18
   listed $439,000 Active
4. 1978-11-01
   soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,144 · $679/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,144 · $679/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$8,144
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$8,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,988
• After-tax cash flow: $1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Stream Central High School District
• NCES district ID: 3629520
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $94,844
• Composite: 66.54/100
• National rank: #418
• State rank: #78 of 590 in NY

Livability — Valley Stream

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #301

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Stream, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 65,910
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,818
• Household income: $142,233
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 346.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 18% Asian 17% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -602.04%
• Current HPI: 285.7096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1147.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,144 · +25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.