1207 Hernando St · Naples, FL 34103

$599,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic location and numerous updates including a new 2021 roof have taken place! Open floorplan concept with a sizable living and kitchen area with granite countertops, newer stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets. Fresh paint and paver walkway and patio. A pet friendly and private fenced backyard with plenty of room for a pool. The spare bathroom and master bath have been updated with new cabinetry. New security system, new fans, and new grout throughout the home. Move in ready and only steps from the beach. Conveniently located close to numerous shopping centers and grocery stores. "A" rated school district.

Key facts

• 2021 roof
• Updated bathrooms
• Paver walkways

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• 2021 ROOF
• PAVER WALKWAYS
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the Naples Twin Lakes development; Lot is approximately 0.17 acres with landscaped area view
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No HOA maintenance or community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Automatic garage door
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (Ranch); Built in 1977; Concrete block construction; Rear exposure faces north
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Shingle roof; Built in 1977
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Automatic sprinkler system; Screened lanai/porch; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen / family dining area
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Great room floor plan; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in garage; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $599k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Gate Elementary School (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 703 students, 26% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 55% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,299/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.87%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $55,308
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $370,287
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34103

• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,533
• Net cashflow: $1,787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,037

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4525 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	23d	1	0.08mi
4523 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	23d	1	0.08mi
1082 Capri Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$9,000	$6.00	23d	1	0.19mi
1400 Pompei Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,888	$1.86	23d	2	0.31mi
1400 Pompei Ln Unit O-21 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,200	$2.15	23d	1	0.32mi
1400 Pompei Ln Unit S-21 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$3,000	$2.93	23d	1	0.32mi
4300 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,750	$5.62	13d	2	0.59mi
4200 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1406	$9,000	$6.40	23d	5	0.59mi
600 Neapolitan Way Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	832	$5,200	$6.25	23d	2	0.60mi
4092 Belair Ln #15 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1500	$6,200	$4.13	23d	1	0.63mi
3930 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$6,000	$4.62	23d	1	0.75mi
5934 Premier Way Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1350	$4,882	$3.62	13d	29	0.79mi
1085 Forest Lakes Dr Unit 8202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$2,800	$2.58	13d	1	0.84mi
1085 Forest Lakes Dr Unit 8106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	13d	1	0.84mi
555 Park Shore Dr Unit B410 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	21d	1	0.87mi
1086 Forest Lakes Dr Unit 9303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	13d	1	0.88mi
287 Quail Forest Blvd #117 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	993	$1,695	$1.71	13d	1	0.93mi
287 Quail Forest Blvd #117 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	993	$1,995	$2.01	21d	1	0.93mi
788 Park Shore Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	931	$5,500	$5.90	13d	3	0.96mi
260 Quail Forest Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,533	$2.89	13d	22	0.99mi
180 Turtle Lake Ct #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$1,850	$2.20	21d	1	1.05mi
170 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,975	$3.53	13d	1	1.06mi
190 Turtle Lake Ct Unit 6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,100	$2.49	13d	1	1.09mi
4560 Gulf Shore Blvd N Unit 3-213 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1321	$8,500	$6.43	23d	1	1.10mi
200 Turtle Lake Ct #109 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	1.11mi
100 Forest Lakes Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	842	$3,500	$4.16	13d	3	1.12mi
1044 Woodshire Ln Unit B212 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$8,000	$6.40	23d	1	1.14mi
225 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,900	$2.57	23d	2	1.15mi
611 Serendipity Dr #611 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$10,000	$7.69	21d	1	1.17mi
175 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,650	$2.23	13d	2	1.17mi
595 Serendipity Dr #595 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$10,000	$7.17	23d	1	1.20mi
4751 Gulf Shore Blvd N #602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1424	$12,500	$8.78	23d	1	1.22mi
45 High Point Cir S #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$5,500	$5.42	23d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$12,000	$9.76	23d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #501 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$13,500	$9.31	23d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #1203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1274	$14,500	$11.38	23d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #702 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1155	$11,000	$9.52	23d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$12,000	$9.76	21d	1	1.23mi
5501 Heron Point Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$10,000	$8.13	23d	1	1.23mi
5633 Turtle Bay Dr #37 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1423	$8,500	$5.97	23d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $599,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,239 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,239 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$4,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,007
• − Management: −$7,007
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $12,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,008
• After-tax cash flow: $18,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,299
• Household income: $116,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.53%
• Current HPI: 315.1396
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.55%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+847.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $599,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $528,500 Public Records
• 2022-01-11 Sold (MLS) $528,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-12-17 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-12-09 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-11-14 Listed $525,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-07 Sold (MLS) $345,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2020-12-15 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2020-11-20 Listed $359,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed $150,500 FORTMLS
• 2014-09-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2014-09-20 Price Changed $165,000 FORTMLS
• 2014-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $150,500 Public Records
• 2014-05-09 Sold (MLS) $150,500 FORTMLS
• 2014-03-20 Listed $165,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,239 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.