309 Center St · Auburndale, FL 33823

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1960 6,325 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Downtown Auburndale location- CBD Zoning- 2 Large Storage Rooms. New tile floors

Key facts

• Steps from city park
• Steps from downtown
• Zoned cbd

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• ZONED CBD
• STEPS FROM DOWNTOWN
• STEPS FROM CITY PARK
• SURROUNDED BY RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in CBD zoning
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Faces southeast; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room located outside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $170k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,622 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,196
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,135
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Twin Pines Ln Unit C Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,000	$1.56	14d	1	0.86mi
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	14d	1	0.96mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	23d	1	0.96mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	0.98mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	23d	1	1.10mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	23d	1	1.22mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	3d	1	1.33mi
2366 Lake Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1003	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $169,900
11. 2026-03-27
    status Active
12. 2026-03-18
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-10
    listed $174,900 Active
14. 2008-04-22
    soldstatus $70,000
15. 2008-04-17
    soldstatus $70,000 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Downtown Auburndale location- CBD Zoning- 2 Large Storage Rooms. New tile floors

16. 2007-10-16
    listed $75,900 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Downtown Auburndale location- CBD Zoning- 2 Large Storage Rooms. New tile floors

17. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $29,900
18. 1977-09-01
    soldstatus $21,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$179
• After-tax cash flow: $2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+675.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-17 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-16 Listed $75,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 1977-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.