21801 Plunge Rd · Crestline, CA 92322

$152,750

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1928 5,470 sqft lot Est $213k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Probate Sale! Estate of Norbert Victor. ALL CASH SALE! This 1 bed; 1 bath Single Family Home built in 1928 features +/-448 Sq Ft of living space, +/-5,470 Sq Ft lot, APN: 342-214-08-0000. The property is in poor condition. No trespassing or inspections prior to auction day. . This Property is offered together with improvements thereon as is, where is, with no warranty expressed or implied.

Key facts

• 5,470 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley of Enchantment Elementary (548 students, 67% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,585 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.21%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,248
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21801 Plunge Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	448 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$324	99
466 Willow Witch Rd	0.30mi	1/1.0	504 (+12%)	11mo	$240,000	$476	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,671
• Equity at exit: $22,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $8,781
• Equity at exit: $13,207

Cash invested: $42,770 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92322

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$801
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $152,750

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $265	+0% $221	+5% $178	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $161	+0% $221	+5% $282	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $260	base $221	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,188
• Closing costs: $4,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-22
   historical Backup Offers Accepted
3. 2026-02-22
   price $152,750
4. 2026-02-05
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,444
• Taxable income: $185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Crestline

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #805
• US rank: #22821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestline, CA
• City population: 9,065
• Population (ZIP): 605

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Two or more races 42% Hispanic / Latino 26% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.37%
• Current HPI: 315.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+79.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — TheMLS
• 2026-02-22 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $152,750 TheMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $85,000 TheMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.