825 Welch Ln · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$77,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 397 Days on market

Built 1968 0.97 ac lot $35/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• Listed 396 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 5.3% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 397 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 397 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.95%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,900
• List price: $77,000
• Delta: -54.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
795 Yale St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,912 (-12%)	8mo	$225,000	$118	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $27,576
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $75,748
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,834/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $650	+0% $628	+5% $606	+10% $584
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $567	+0% $628	+5% $689	+10% $750
Rate	-1.0pp $667	-0.5pp $648	base $628	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,000 Active 397 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,000 Active 394 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,000 Active 393 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 392 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,000 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,000 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $77,000 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 384 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,000 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,000 Active 378 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,000 Active 377 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 376 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $77,000 Active 375 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $77,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

17. 2025-12-19
    price $94,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

18. 2025-07-23
    price $100,000 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

19. 2025-06-04
    status Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

20. 2025-04-25
    status Pending 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

21. 2025-04-10
    listed $110,000 Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    This property features a-bedroom, 2-bath floor on 0.97 of land. Schedule your showing!

22. 2018-06-28
    soldstatus 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Precious dollhouse, completely renovated and ready for you to move in! Located North Vidor on almost an acre, this charming home has lots of character. 2 living areas, updates throughout including but not limited to new flooring, new fixtures, new granite, new vanities in baths with gorgeous granite tops, new SS appliances in kitchen, new doors, new roof, new AC unit, the list just goes on and on! 2 covered patio areas and private deck off master. This place is sure to go fast, call today!

23. 2018-03-13
    listed $135,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Precious dollhouse, completely renovated and ready for you to move in! Located North Vidor on almost an acre, this charming home has lots of character. 2 living areas, updates throughout including but not limited to new flooring, new fixtures, new granite, new vanities in baths with gorgeous granite tops, new SS appliances in kitchen, new doors, new roof, new AC unit, the list just goes on and on! 2 covered patio areas and private deck off master. This place is sure to go fast, call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$1,834
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $6,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $5,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $77,000 BBOR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $94,000 BBOR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $100,000 BBOR
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — BBOR
• 2025-04-25 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-04-10 Listed $110,000 BBOR
• 2018-06-28 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2018-03-13 Listed $135,000 BBOR

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2017): $1,834 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.