4117 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +13.4/15.0
- Cash flow +6.8/30.0
- Schools +4.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- 1% rule +2.0/10.0
- DSCR +1.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$248,375
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Available for July 2026! The single-story Beeville plan features an open-concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room. The dedicated foyer and oversized laundry room are the highlights of this floorplan.
Key facts
- 4,791 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Community pool
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (22.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (29.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $174k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
- Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.70% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.41%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.73%
- DSCR
- 0.70
- GRM
- 11.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $285,581
- List price
- $248,375
- Delta
- -13.03%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 304 Lazyglade Ln | 0.28mi | 3/2.0 | 1,576 (0%) | 6mo | $249,790 | $158 | 82 |
| 4138 Lily Glade | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 | 1,512 (-4%) | 1mo | $199,000 | $132 | 81 |
| 4053 Bermuda Ln | 0.20mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,619 (+3%) | 2mo | $247,732 | $153 | 77 |
| 4029 Lily Glade Ln | 0.27mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,619 (+3%) | 4mo | $239,290 | $148 | 72 |
| 316 Lazyglade Ln | 0.30mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,619 (+3%) | 4mo | $249,662 | $154 | 71 |
| 316 Pacific Waters | 0.66mi | 3/2.0 | 1,474 (-6%) | 6mo | $214,999 | $146 | 54 |
| 332 Pacific Waters | 0.70mi | 3/2.0 | 1,474 (-6%) | 6mo | $260,999 | $177 | 52 |
| 240 Pacific Waters | 0.62mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,667 (+6%) | 6mo | $220,999 | $133 | 52 |
| 304 Pacific Waters | 0.64mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,667 (+6%) | 6mo | $211,999 | $127 | 51 |
| 344 Pacific Waters | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 | 1,474 (-6%) | 6mo | $205,999 | $140 | 50 |
| 328 Pacific Waters | 0.69mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,667 (+6%) | 6mo | $273,999 | $164 | 48 |
| 340 Pacific Waters | 0.71mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,667 (+6%) | 6mo | $266,999 | $160 | 48 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -29.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.04×
- Total profit
- $-66,708
- Equity at exit
- $37,034
- IRR
- -33.5%
- Equity multiple
- -0.39×
- Total profit
- $-96,564
- Equity at exit
- $21,475
Cash invested: $69,545 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 31 active · 13 under contract
- Months of supply
- 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $273,990 ($176/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 441 d
- This list price
- 16% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78155
- Rents YoY
- 2.0%
- Active inventory
- 1603
- Price-to-rent
- 11.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,742 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,303
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$310 /mo · $3,726/yr
- Insurance
- −$103
- HOA
- −$50
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$366
- Net cashflow
- $-390
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-219 | -5% $-304 | +0% $-390 | +5% $-476 | +10% $-562 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-528 | -5% $-459 | +0% $-390 | +5% $-321 | +10% $-253 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-265 | -0.5pp $-327 | base $-390 | +0.5pp $-455 | +1.0pp $-520 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $62,094
- Closing costs
- $7,451
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $1,575 | $1.05 | 9d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $1,625 | $1.09 | 51d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $1,625 | $1.09 | 41d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2218 | $1,950 | $0.88 | 9d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1937 | $1,995 | $1.03 | 46d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $1,576 | $1.07 | 22d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $1,510 | $1.02 | 25d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1667 | $1,773 | $1.06 | 20d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1874 | $1,799 | $0.96 | 9d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1874 | $1,825 | $0.97 | 60d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 3824 High Tide Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $1,495 | $1.01 | 9d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 205 Free Waters Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $1,549 | $1.05 | 46d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 205 Free Waters Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1474 | $1,419 | $0.96 | 29d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 249 Free Waters Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1667 | $1,695 | $1.02 | 9d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1910 | $1,516 | $0.79 | 32d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1910 | $2,195 | $1.15 | 9d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1910 | $2,195 | $1.15 | 37d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 2700 Coral Vly Seguin, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2229 | $2,200 | $0.99 | 23d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Possession at closing/funding
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA fee ($150)Association transfer fee ($395)Community amenities include a pool and park/playgroundSubdivision: Lily Springs
Exterior
- Parking
- 2-car garage
- Utilities
- Water system (Seguin)Sewer system (Seguin)Electric service by GVECGarbage service by Seguin
- Home design
- New construction by PulteNorth and east front exposuresAccessible/adaptive home
- Construction
- Stone and siding exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofNew home (approximate age: new)
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windowsLevel lotStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights
Interior
- Kitchen
- Stove/RangeDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
- Bedrooms
- Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (approx. 14 x 13)Bedroom 2 (approx. 11 x 11)Bedroom 3 (approx. 11 x 11)
- Flooring
- CarpetingVinyl flooring
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (approx. 10 x 5)
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Eat-in kitchen with islandOne living areaUtility room insideCable TV availableHigh-speed internet availableSolid countertopsSmoke alarmVent fan
- Laundry & utility
- Washer connectionDryer connectionUtility room approx. 7 x 12
Listing history 50 events
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2026-08-08days on market $248,375 Active 100 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $248,375 Active 98 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $248,375 Active 97 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $248,375 Active 96 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $248,375 Active 95 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $248,375 Active 92 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $248,375 Active 91 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $248,375 Active 90 DOM
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2026-07-28days on market $248,375 Active 89 DOM
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2026-07-26statusdays on market $248,375 Active 87 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $248,375 Price Change 85 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $248,375 Price Change 84 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $248,375 Price Change 83 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $248,375 Price Change 82 DOM
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2026-07-20days on market $248,375 Price Change 81 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $248,375 Price Change 79 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $248,375 Price Change 78 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $248,375 Price Change 77 DOM
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2026-07-15pricestatusdays on market $248,375 Price Change 76 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $248,475 Active 75 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $248,475 Active 74 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $248,475 Active 73 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $248,475 Active 72 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $248,475 Active 71 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $248,475 Active 70 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $248,475 Active 68 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $248,475 Active 67 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $248,475 Active 66 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $248,475 Active 64 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $248,475 Active 63 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $248,475 Active 62 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $248,475 Active 61 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $248,475 Active 60 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $248,475 Active 59 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $248,475 Active 58 DOM
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2026-06-26days on market $248,475 Active 57 DOM
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2026-06-24days on market $248,475 Active 55 DOM
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2026-06-22days on market $248,475 Active 53 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $248,475 Active 52 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $248,475 Active 49 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $248,475 Active 48 DOM
Show marketing remark (253 chars)
Available for July 2026! The single-story Beeville plan features an open-concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room. The dedicated foyer and oversized laundry room are the highlights of this floorplan.
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2026-06-16days on market $248,475 Active 47 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $248,475 Active 46 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $248,475 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $248,475 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $248,475 Active 40 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $248,475 Active 39 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $248,475 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $248,475 Active 35 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $248,475 Active 34 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,906
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,913
- − Property taxes
- −$3,726
- − Insurance
- −$1,242
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,672
- − Management
- −$1,672
- − HOA
- −$600
- − Depreciation
- −$7,225
- Taxable loss
- −$9,145
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,195
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,487/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This single-story home is in excellent condition with new finishes and landscaping, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics in bathrooms. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Navarro ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4832160
- Math proficiency
- 48% ▼ -19.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $66,008
- Composite
- 43.49/100
- National rank
- #2996
- State rank
- #166 of 826 in TX
Livability — Seguin
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #592
- US rank
- #11298
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Seguin, TX
- County
- Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
- City population
- 55,600
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 55,600
- Household income
- $71,039
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 17% of renters
Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 196,854 people
- By 2030
- 220,210 · +11.9%
- By 2040
- 268,004 · +36.1%
- By 2050
- 316,333 · +60.7%
- By 2075
- 434,747 · +120.8%
- By 2100
- 520,447 · +164.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 41%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -147.43%
- Current HPI
- 160.5435
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.04%
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+1.6% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-17 Price Changed $252,375 Zillow
- 2026-04-21 Listed $248,475 LERA
- 2026-04-17 Listed $248,475 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…