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4117 Lazy Lily Dr
D- Composite 38.33
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.4/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.8/30.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.0/10.0
  • DSCR +1.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$248,375

4117 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $158/sqft · 13% below area Est $286k · 13% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The single-story Beeville plan features an open-concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room. The dedicated foyer and oversized laundry room are the highlights of this floorplan.

Key facts

  • 4,791 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (22.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (29.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $174k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
  • Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $174,214 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.70%
Cap rate
4.41%
Cash-on-cash
-6.73%
DSCR
0.70
GRM
11.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$285,581
List price
$248,375
Delta
-13.03%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
304 Lazyglade Ln 0.28mi 3/2.0 1,576 (0%) 6mo $249,790 $158 82
4138 Lily Glade 0.24mi 3/2.0 1,512 (-4%) 1mo $199,000 $132 81
4053 Bermuda Ln 0.20mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,619 (+3%) 2mo $247,732 $153 77
4029 Lily Glade Ln 0.27mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,619 (+3%) 4mo $239,290 $148 72
316 Lazyglade Ln 0.30mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,619 (+3%) 4mo $249,662 $154 71
316 Pacific Waters 0.66mi 3/2.0 1,474 (-6%) 6mo $214,999 $146 54
332 Pacific Waters 0.70mi 3/2.0 1,474 (-6%) 6mo $260,999 $177 52
240 Pacific Waters 0.62mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,667 (+6%) 6mo $220,999 $133 52
304 Pacific Waters 0.64mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,667 (+6%) 6mo $211,999 $127 51
344 Pacific Waters 0.72mi 3/2.0 1,474 (-6%) 6mo $205,999 $140 50
328 Pacific Waters 0.69mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,667 (+6%) 6mo $273,999 $164 48
340 Pacific Waters 0.71mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,667 (+6%) 6mo $266,999 $160 48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.0%
Equity multiple
0.04×
Total profit
$-66,708
Equity at exit
$37,034
10-year hold
IRR
-33.5%
Equity multiple
-0.39×
Total profit
$-96,564
Equity at exit
$21,475

Cash invested: $69,545 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
31 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply
7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$273,990 ($176/sqft)
Median days on market
441 d
This list price
16% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

Rents YoY
2.0%
Active inventory
1603
Price-to-rent
11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,742 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,303
Tax est. 1.5%
$310 /mo · $3,726/yr
Insurance
$103
HOA
$50
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$366
Net cashflow
$-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236
Max offer price $191,916
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-219 -5% $-304 +0% $-390 +5% $-476 +10% $-562
Rent -10% $-528 -5% $-459 +0% $-390 +5% $-321 +10% $-253
Rate -1.0pp $-265 -0.5pp $-327 base $-390 +0.5pp $-455 +1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$62,094
Closing costs
$7,451
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 18 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,575 $1.05 9d 1 0.10mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 51d 1 0.10mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 41d 1 0.10mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2218 $1,950 $0.88 9d 1 0.17mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1937 $1,995 $1.03 46d 1 0.18mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,576 $1.07 22d 1 0.44mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,510 $1.02 25d 1 0.44mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,773 $1.06 20d 1 0.53mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,799 $0.96 9d 1 0.65mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,825 $0.97 60d 1 0.66mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,495 $1.01 9d 1 0.66mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,549 $1.05 46d 1 0.68mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,419 $0.96 29d 1 0.68mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,695 $1.02 9d 1 0.73mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1910 $1,516 $0.79 32d 1 1.43mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 9d 1 1.44mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 37d 1 1.44mi
2700 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2229 $2,200 $0.99 23d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Possession at closing/funding
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA fee ($150)Association transfer fee ($395)Community amenities include a pool and park/playgroundSubdivision: Lily Springs

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water system (Seguin)Sewer system (Seguin)Electric service by GVECGarbage service by Seguin
Home design
New construction by PulteNorth and east front exposuresAccessible/adaptive home
Construction
Stone and siding exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofNew home (approximate age: new)
Exterior features
Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windowsLevel lotStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

Kitchen
Stove/RangeDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms
Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (approx. 14 x 13)Bedroom 2 (approx. 11 x 11)Bedroom 3 (approx. 11 x 11)
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (approx. 10 x 5)
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchen with islandOne living areaUtility room insideCable TV availableHigh-speed internet availableSolid countertopsSmoke alarmVent fan
Laundry & utility
Washer connectionDryer connectionUtility room approx. 7 x 12

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,375 Active 100 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,375 Active 98 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,375 Active 97 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,375 Active 96 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $248,375 Active 95 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $248,375 Active 92 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $248,375 Active 91 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $248,375 Active 90 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $248,375 Active 89 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    statusdays on market $248,375 Active 87 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 85 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 84 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 83 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 82 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 81 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 79 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 78 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $248,375 Price Change 77 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    pricestatusdays on market $248,375 Price Change 76 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $248,475 Active 75 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $248,475 Active 74 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $248,475 Active 73 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $248,475 Active 72 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $248,475 Active 71 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $248,475 Active 70 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $248,475 Active 68 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $248,475 Active 67 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $248,475 Active 66 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $248,475 Active 64 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $248,475 Active 63 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $248,475 Active 62 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $248,475 Active 61 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $248,475 Active 60 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $248,475 Active 59 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $248,475 Active 58 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $248,475 Active 57 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $248,475 Active 55 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $248,475 Active 53 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $248,475 Active 52 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $248,475 Active 49 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $248,475 Active 48 DOM
    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Available for July 2026! The single-story Beeville plan features an open-concept living space that connects the island kitchen, café and spacious gathering room. The dedicated foyer and oversized laundry room are the highlights of this floorplan.

  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $248,475 Active 47 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $248,475 Active 46 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $248,475 Active 44 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $248,475 Active 43 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $248,475 Active 40 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,475 Active 39 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,475 Active 38 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,475 Active 35 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,475 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$20,906
− Mortgage interest
−$13,913
− Property taxes
−$3,726
− Insurance
−$1,242
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,672
− Management
−$1,672
− HOA
−$600
− Depreciation
−$7,225
Taxable loss
−$9,145
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,195
After-tax cash flow
$-2,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,880–$23,640 screening

This single-story home is in excellent condition with new finishes and landscaping, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
  • Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics in bathrooms.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Navarro ISD
NCES district ID
4832160
Math proficiency
48% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$66,008
Composite
43.49/100
National rank
#2996
State rank
#166 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

Score
66/100
State rank
#592
US rank
#11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Seguin, TX
County
Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
City population
55,600
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
55,600
Household income
$71,039
Rent vs Own
27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden
17% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
196,854 people
By 2030
220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040
268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050
316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075
434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100
520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 41%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin
Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing
+1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+1.6% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-17 Price Changed $252,375 Zillow
  • 2026-04-21 Listed $248,475 LERA
  • 2026-04-17 Listed $248,475 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…