4811 Hannas Reef Dr · Bacliff, TX 77518

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 1977 5,000 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4811 Hannas Reef in Bacliff—a charming, clean, and truly move-in ready home that’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a well-maintained, affordable property to live in or have as a rental. This inviting home has been lovingly cared for and it shows, offering a comfortable layout and a fresh, welcoming feel throughout. Big-ticket updates add peace of mind, including a newer HVAC system installed in 2023, fresh exterior paint completed in 2025, as well as bathroom updates in 2025. Whether you’re looking to put down roots or simplify your lifestyle, this home delivers great value without sacrificing condition or charm. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities, dining, and waterfront attractions, this is a fantastic opportunity to own a solid home at an approachable price point. Don’t miss your chance to make this gem your own.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in Bacliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.64%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,032
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 1.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4902 Scott Reef Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	924 (-9%)	1mo	$139,900	$151	81
4902 Moody Reef Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,057 (+4%)	3mo	$190,000	$180	77
4807 Moody Reef Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,057 (+4%)	9mo	$153,000	$145	73
4911 Hannas Reef Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	924 (-9%)	10mo	$135,000	$146	73
4814 Hannas Reef Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+10%)	10mo	$165,000	$147	71
4806 Dollar Reef Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,101 (+8%)	12mo	$170,000	$154	71
4815 Hannas Reef Dr	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,101 (+8%)	22mo	$187,900	$171	68
4520 1/2 5th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,099 (+8%)	12mo	$112,500	$102	44
4743 6th St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+13%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,453
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,670
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77518

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 E AVE Unit 2 Bacliff, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	43d	1	0.59mi
339 Sea Breeze Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,985	$1.36	3d	1	0.98mi
320 Louisiana Ave Bacliff, TX	2.0	1.0	786	$2,150	$2.74	1d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Pending 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Pending 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Pending 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Pending 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $170,000 Pending 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $170,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-01-29
    status Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to 4811 Hannas Reef in Bacliff—a charming, clean, and truly move-in ready home that’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a well-maintained, affordable property to live in or have as a rental. This inviting home has been lovingly cared for and it shows, offering a comfortable layout and a fresh, welcoming feel throughout. Big-ticket updates add peace of mind, including a newer HVAC system installed in 2023, fresh exterior paint completed in 2025, as well as bathroom updates in 2025. Whether you’re looking to put down roots or simplify your lifestyle, this home delivers great value without sacrificing condition or charm. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities, dining, and waterfront attractions, this is a fantastic opportunity to own a solid home at an approachable price point. Don’t miss your chance to make this gem your own.

12. 2026-01-28
    listed $170,000 Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to 4811 Hannas Reef in Bacliff—a charming, clean, and truly move-in ready home that’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a well-maintained, affordable property to live in or have as a rental. This inviting home has been lovingly cared for and it shows, offering a comfortable layout and a fresh, welcoming feel throughout. Big-ticket updates add peace of mind, including a newer HVAC system installed in 2023, fresh exterior paint completed in 2025, as well as bathroom updates in 2025. Whether you’re looking to put down roots or simplify your lifestyle, this home delivers great value without sacrificing condition or charm. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities, dining, and waterfront attractions, this is a fantastic opportunity to own a solid home at an approachable price point. Don’t miss your chance to make this gem your own.

13. 2026-01-28
    historical 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Welcome to 4811 Hannas Reef in Bacliff—a charming, clean, and truly move-in ready home that’s perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a well-maintained, affordable property to live in or have as a rental. This inviting home has been lovingly cared for and it shows, offering a comfortable layout and a fresh, welcoming feel throughout. Big-ticket updates add peace of mind, including a newer HVAC system installed in 2023, fresh exterior paint completed in 2025, as well as bathroom updates in 2025. Whether you’re looking to put down roots or simplify your lifestyle, this home delivers great value without sacrificing condition or charm. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities, dining, and waterfront attractions, this is a fantastic opportunity to own a solid home at an approachable price point. Don’t miss your chance to make this gem your own.

14. 1993-11-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,770 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 75.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34
• After-tax cash flow: $2,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bacliff

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1252
• US rank: #21864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bacliff, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,541
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,541
• Household income: $51,458
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 43% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.15%
• Current HPI: 293.2677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 1993-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,770 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.