6855 Country Rd · Harding-Birch Lakes, AK 99714

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 703 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1977 10 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an older log cabin on a very nice 10 acre parcel. Large clearing, good soils, nice trees, and close to Eielson AFB.

Key facts

• Road and driveway
• Power in
• 10 flat acres

Tags

• 10 FLAT ACRES
• ROAD AND DRIVEWAY
• POWER IN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned General Use District - 1

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story
• Construction: Log construction
• Exterior features: Property at end of Country Road (per directions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Salcha Elementary (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #74 of 156 statewide, top 47%, 66 students, 42% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.41%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $34,330
• Equity at exit: $38,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $87,807
• Equity at exit: $64,137

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99714

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $582

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 190-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $3,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Harding-Birch Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harding-Birch Lakes, AK
• City population: 1,282
• Population (ZIP): 1,282

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Current HPI: 126.9646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+128.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $75,000 GFBR
• 2019-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-13 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2016-06-13 Listed $32,900 GFBR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.