7307 Ironwood Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1979 9,718 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $9/mo HOA ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideally located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to both I-10 and Grand Parkway (99), this property offers the peace of suburban living while keeping shopping, dining, and commuting just minutes away. The recently updated exterior sets the stage for what awaits inside. Step into a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful hardwood floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. The living area is highlighted by a charming fireplace while the kitchen offers granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances. The home also features large walk-in closets while one bathroom has been tastefully updated with a modern walk-in shower, while the other offers classic elegance with a stunning clawfoot tub. Out back, you’ll find a spacious backyard and covered back patio as well as a sparkling above-ground pool ready for summer fun. Thoughtful updates, inviting character, and fantastic location, this home is ready now ready for you!

Key facts

• Updated exterior
• High ceilings
• Easy access to i-10

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I-10
• EASY ACCESS TO GRAND PARKWAY
• UPDATED EXTERIOR
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• ABUNDANCE OF WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($57/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,644 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,000
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: 1.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10023 Sweet Gum Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+1%)	2mo	$279,999	$166	83
9763 El Chaco St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-4%)	2mo	$150,000	$94	81
7611 Seminole St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+6%)	2mo	$219,900	$125	80
7302 Maple Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+2%)	2mo	$283,000	$167	80
7106 Hopi St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-2%)	8mo	$275,000	$168	80
9915 Bayou Woods Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-11%)	3mo	$244,900	$165	74
7319 Willow Oak Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-11%)	5mo	$237,000	$159	72
9942 Bayou Woods Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-11%)	0mo	$210,000	$142	72
10010 Pinehurst St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,546 (-7%)	8mo	$284,000	$184	68
9810 Ellen St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (+5%)	3mo	$240,000	$138	67
9611 Pinehurst St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$156	64
10010 Pine Valley Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-4%)	3mo	$255,000	$159	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,721
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,476
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,602/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $73	+0% $5	+5% $-63	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-79	+0% $5	+5% $88	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $66	base $5	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1716 Sterling Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,250	$1.64	44d	1	0.85mi
1900 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,956	$2.13	2d	17	0.98mi
10235 Cedar Crossing St Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,506	$2.28	2d	27	1.18mi
2100 Kilgore Pkwy Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,964	$2.13	2d	13	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    status Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ideally located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to both I-10 and Grand Parkway (99), this property offers the peace of suburban living while keeping shopping, dining, and commuting just minutes away. The recently updated exterior sets the stage for what awaits inside. Step into a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful hardwood floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. The living area is highlighted by a charming fireplace while the kitchen offers granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances. The home also features large walk-in closets while one bathroom has been tastefully updated with a modern walk-in shower, while the other offers classic elegance with a stunning clawfoot tub. Out back, you’ll find a spacious backyard and covered back patio as well as a sparkling above-ground pool ready for summer fun. Thoughtful updates, inviting character, and fantastic location, this home is ready now ready for you!

14. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ideally located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to both I-10 and Grand Parkway (99), this property offers the peace of suburban living while keeping shopping, dining, and commuting just minutes away. The recently updated exterior sets the stage for what awaits inside. Step into a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful hardwood floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. The living area is highlighted by a charming fireplace while the kitchen offers granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances. The home also features large walk-in closets while one bathroom has been tastefully updated with a modern walk-in shower, while the other offers classic elegance with a stunning clawfoot tub. Out back, you’ll find a spacious backyard and covered back patio as well as a sparkling above-ground pool ready for summer fun. Thoughtful updates, inviting character, and fantastic location, this home is ready now ready for you!

15. 2026-04-08
    listed $239,900 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ideally located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to both I-10 and Grand Parkway (99), this property offers the peace of suburban living while keeping shopping, dining, and commuting just minutes away. The recently updated exterior sets the stage for what awaits inside. Step into a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful hardwood floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. The living area is highlighted by a charming fireplace while the kitchen offers granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances. The home also features large walk-in closets while one bathroom has been tastefully updated with a modern walk-in shower, while the other offers classic elegance with a stunning clawfoot tub. Out back, you’ll find a spacious backyard and covered back patio as well as a sparkling above-ground pool ready for summer fun. Thoughtful updates, inviting character, and fantastic location, this home is ready now ready for you!

16. 2026-04-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ideally located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to both I-10 and Grand Parkway (99), this property offers the peace of suburban living while keeping shopping, dining, and commuting just minutes away. The recently updated exterior sets the stage for what awaits inside. Step into a warm and inviting interior featuring beautiful hardwood floors, high ceilings, and an abundance of windows that fill the home with natural light. The living area is highlighted by a charming fireplace while the kitchen offers granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances. The home also features large walk-in closets while one bathroom has been tastefully updated with a modern walk-in shower, while the other offers classic elegance with a stunning clawfoot tub. Out back, you’ll find a spacious backyard and covered back patio as well as a sparkling above-ground pool ready for summer fun. Thoughtful updates, inviting character, and fantastic location, this home is ready now ready for you!

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,602
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$958
• After-tax cash flow: $1,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,602 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.