1156 E State Highway 121 · Lewisville, TX 75057

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * A MUST SEE! Southern Energy Star 17& apos; x76& apos; upscale, custom-designed, manufactured home built by Clayton Homes. Featured Upgrades: & acirc; & euro; & cent;

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.22%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $42,889
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $93,694
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75057

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $982	-5% $957	+0% $933	+5% $909	+10% $885
Rent	-10% $792	-5% $862	+0% $933	+5% $1,004	+10% $1,075
Rate	-1.0pp $969	-0.5pp $951	base $933	+0.5pp $915	+1.0pp $897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 E College St Lewisville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,115	$2.19	2d	38	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $10,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,574
• After-tax cash flow: $8,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lewisville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #8991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisville, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 84,871
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,958
• Household income: $82,803
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 32% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.22%
• Current HPI: 308.1135
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $69,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $42 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.