304 E Jerald St · Highland Springs, VA 23075

$192,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 0.31 ac lot Est $297k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home located in the heart of Highland Springs.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,218 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Dale St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,160 (0%)	1mo	$239,000	$206	89
508 E Read St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-1%)	1mo	$225,000	$195	75
107 S Kalmia Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	12mo	$315,000	$273	72
398 S Oak Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-13%)	3mo	$255,000	$253	70
394 S Oak	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-13%)	3mo	$285,000	$283	70
309 South St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-3%)	10mo	$300,000	$266	66
2 Pleasant St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$265	64
111 S Grove Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-7%)	7mo	$250,000	$232	58
258 Jennings Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+6%)	10mo	$349,950	$286	57
508 Highland Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+12%)	4mo	$270,000	$208	56
110 N Kalmia Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+7%)	1mo	$200,000	$162	49
118 N Linden Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	2mo	$266,400	$256	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,927
• Equity at exit: $28,628

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,140
• Equity at exit: $16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23075

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
339 E Jerald St Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,950	$1.68	43d	1	0.22mi
901 E 9 Mile Rd Unit a Highland Springs, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,312	$1.64	21d	1	0.46mi
118 N Linden Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,795	$1.66	43d	1	0.69mi
117 N Ivy Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,590	$1.62	2d	1	0.75mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Unit J Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,395	$1.78	23d	1	0.91mi
132 N Elm Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,629	$1.94	43d	1	0.91mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,345	$1.72	43d	1	0.93mi
239 N Mapleleaf Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	23d	1	0.98mi
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	1d	12	1.00mi
419 Roxana Rd Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1085	$2,050	$1.89	2d	1	1.05mi
205 Bridge St Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,850	$1.49	10d	1	1.07mi
1000 E Washington St Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$2,000	$2.25	2d	1	1.13mi
4815 Oakleys Ln Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.35mi
6 Naglee Ave Sandston, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	43d	1	1.36mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	2d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2022-01-11
   status Pending
2. 2022-01-07
   listed $192,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable loss: −$1,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $2,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,347
• Household income: $55,567
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.15%
• Current HPI: 458.732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2022-01-11 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2022-01-07 Listed $192,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.