12222 Oak Hollow Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1988 0.28 ac lot $85/sqft · 36% below area Est $283k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The home is ready for your personal touch. With solid bones and a great foundation to build from, this is the ideal canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers who want to design every detail exactly the way they want it. Properties with this kind of outdoor space and low-traffic privacy don’t come along often. The cul-de-sac setting means minimal drive-through traffic, making it a safe and serene spot with a true neighborhood feel. Bring your contractor, bring your imagination, and bring your best offer — this one won’t last. Priced to sell. Packed with potential.

Key facts

• Low-traffic privacy
• Cul-de-sac setting
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CUL-DE-SAC SETTING
• LOW-TRAFFIC PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $180k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,074
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -36.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12219 Pine Burr Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,848 (-12%)	15mo	$405,000	$219	60
12103 Hillcrest Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,979 (-6%)	7mo	$595,000	$301	57
13200 N Decker Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,969 (-7%)	2mo	$409,900	$208	53
33507 Cripple Creek Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,408 (+14%)	8mo	$415,000	$172	49
532 Cicero	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (-4%)	12mo	$329,990	$162	46
514 Cicero Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (-4%)	15mo	$335,770	$165	46
32503 Decker Creek Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-5%)	14mo	$290,000	$145	43
241 Bella Way	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (-4%)	16mo	$334,990	$165	42
12010 Viola Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+8%)	12mo	$358,000	$157	40
520 Cicero	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,170 (+3%)	18mo	$340,115	$157	40
234 Bella Way	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,170 (+3%)	18mo	$338,115	$156	35
13202 N Decker Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,793 (-15%)	10mo	$395,000	$220	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,141
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,832
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,794/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $179,900 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    The home is ready for your personal touch. With solid bones and a great foundation to build from, this is the ideal canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers who want to design every detail exactly the way they want it. Properties with this kind of outdoor space and low-traffic privacy don’t come along often. The cul-de-sac setting means minimal drive-through traffic, making it a safe and serene spot with a true neighborhood feel. Bring your contractor, bring your imagination, and bring your best offer — this one won’t last. Priced to sell. Packed with potential.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $189,900 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    The home is ready for your personal touch. With solid bones and a great foundation to build from, this is the ideal canvas for investors, flippers, or buyers who want to design every detail exactly the way they want it. Properties with this kind of outdoor space and low-traffic privacy don’t come along often. The cul-de-sac setting means minimal drive-through traffic, making it a safe and serene spot with a true neighborhood feel. Bring your contractor, bring your imagination, and bring your best offer — this one won’t last. Priced to sell. Packed with potential.

17. 1997-11-04
    soldstatus $77,271

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,794 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,794 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,794
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $1,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$449
• After-tax cash flow: $4,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+132.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 1997-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $77,271 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,794 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.