16820 N 2nd Ave #284 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$67,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition Est $77k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size not available (source: owner)
• Financial info: $250 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Land lease community with $1,100 monthly land lease; Association maintains grounds and streets; Community pool; Community golf; Community laundry

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile housing; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roofing
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Chain link fencing; Metal roof; Desert front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.88%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,000
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 W Bell Rd #293	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	1mo	$35,000	$29	82
16821 N 2nd Dr #282	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	15mo	$73,500	$70	80
16622 N 2nd Dr #182	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	67
16618 N 1st Dr #114	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	23mo	$45,000	$39	66
16813 N 3rd Ave #235	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	15mo	$64,900	$53	63
16821 1st Ave N #53	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	8mo	$32,000	$26	61
17833 N 1st Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0	992 (-10%)	3mo	$280,000	$282	50
17821 N 1st St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,169 (+6%)	16mo	$250,000	$214	43
33 E Libby St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,233 (+12%)	10mo	$335,000	$272	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $34,221
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $76,029
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	2d	32	0.10mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	24d	1	0.12mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	24d	1	0.12mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	24d	1	0.12mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	8d	1	0.14mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	1d	11	0.21mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	1d	1	0.24mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,419	$2.16	2d	33	0.25mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	0.32mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,000	$1.52	22d	1	0.33mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,455	$1.68	1d	8	0.35mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,100	$1.67	8d	1	0.44mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,195	$1.66	24d	1	0.49mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	2d	25	0.53mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,200	$1.71	3d	1	0.57mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	1d	35	0.60mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	44d	1	0.74mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	0.82mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	17d	1	0.87mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	3d	7	0.88mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	5d	2	1.01mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	20d	1	1.02mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	18d	1	1.05mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	11d	1	1.05mi
1305 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,300	$1.64	18d	1	1.09mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	2d	26	1.12mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	1.13mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	1.18mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	3d	1	1.19mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,221	$1.52	1d	32	1.19mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,796	$1.25	8d	1	1.20mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	2d	40	1.23mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	1.26mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	1.28mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	1.30mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.33mi
1126 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,450	$2.02	3d	1	1.34mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	3d	1	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	8d	1	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   listed $67,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $8,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $7,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $67,000 ARMLS