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16820 N 2nd Ave #284
B Composite 74.3
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.8/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.7/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

$49,900

16820 N 2nd Ave #284 · Phoenix, AZ 85023
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1974 Good condition $45/sqft · 20% below area Est $63k · 20% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Key facts

  • 2 parking spots
  • Community pool
  • Built 1974

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
  • Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
  • Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Zoned schools: Lookout Mountain School (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #202 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 881 students, 24% FRL); Mountain Sky Middle School (math 30% / reading 28%, grade F, #90 of 218 statewide, top 42%, 713 students, 55% FRL); Thunderbird High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #109 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,540 students, 43% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
2.37% ✓
Cap rate
20.44%
Cash-on-cash
50.53%
DSCR
3.25
GRM
3.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$62,663
List price
$49,900
Delta
-20.37%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
18 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
205 W Bell Rd #106 0.04mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,100 (0%) 3mo $9,600 $9 91
205 W Bell Rd #249 0.04mi 2/1.5 1,056 (-4%) 2mo $6,000 $6 88
205 W Bell Rd #276 0.04mi 2/2.0 1,032 (-6%) 2mo $11,500 $11 86
205 W Bell Rd #293 0.04mi 2/2.0 1,200 (+9%) 6mo $35,000 $29 78
16821 N 2nd Dr #282 0.02mi 2/2.0 1,056 (-4%) 19mo $73,500 $70 76
205 W Bell Rd #35 0.04mi 2/2.0 1,248 (+14%) 5mo $15,000 $12 72
16622 N 2nd Dr #182 0.13mi 2/2.0 960 (-13%) 12mo $70,000 $73 63
16813 N 3rd Ave #235 0.09mi 2/2.0 1,232 (+12%) 19mo $64,900 $53 60
16821 1st Ave N #53 0.12mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,248 (+14%) 12mo $32,000 $26 57
17833 N 1st Pl 0.65mi 2/2.0 992 (-10%) 8mo $280,000 $282 47
17821 N 1st St 0.61mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,169 (+6%) 21mo $250,000 $214 39
33 E Libby St 0.59mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,233 (+12%) 14mo $335,000 $272 35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
44.9%
Equity multiple
2.86×
Total profit
$25,943
Equity at exit
$7,440
10-year hold
IRR
49.4%
Equity multiple
5.12×
Total profit
$57,537
Equity at exit
$4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
11 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply
5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$62,000 ($53/sqft)
Median days on market
96 d
This list price
36% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85023

Rents YoY
-3.4%
Active inventory
261
Price-to-rent
3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,181 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax est. 1.5%
−$62 /mo · $748/yr
Insurance
−$21
HOA
−$0
Lot rent leased land?
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$248
Net cashflow
$588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437
Max offer price $49,900
Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $623 -5% $606 +0% $588 +5% $571 +10% $554
Rent -10% $495 -5% $542 +0% $588 +5% $635 +10% $682
Rate -1.0pp $613 -0.5pp $601 base $588 +0.5pp $575 +1.0pp $562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$12,475
Closing costs
$1,497
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 957 $1,591 $1.66 1d 28 0.10mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 845 $1,499 $1.77 5d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 886 $1,499 $1.69 38d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 976 $1,749 $1.79 87d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 976 $1,749 $1.79 105d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1059 $1,699 $1.60 31d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 856 $1,399 $1.63 28d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 886 $1,499 $1.69 33d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 980 $1,599 $1.63 29d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 980 $1,599 $1.63 21d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 980 $1,599 $1.63 1d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 856 $1,399 $1.63 36d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1059 $1,699 $1.60 26d 1 0.14mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0 1.0 845 $1,499 $1.77 148d 1 0.14mi
16805 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ 1.0 2.0 792 $1,275 $1.61 23d 1 0.16mi
16617 N 2nd Dr Phoenix, AZ 1.0 2.0 792 $1,275 $1.61 27d 1 0.16mi
16613 N 2nd Ln Phoenix, AZ 1.0 2.0 792 $1,330 $1.68 63d 1 0.18mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 950 $1,676 $1.76 0d 5 0.21mi
16605 N 2nd Ln Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1447 $1,525 $1.05 23d 1 0.21mi
16603 N 1st Ln Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,550 $1.55 0d 1 0.23mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0 1.0 910 $1,350 $1.48 129d 1 0.24mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ 2.0 1.0–2.0 658 $1,365 $2.07 0d 24 0.25mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1272 $1,990 $1.56 64d 1 0.32mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1312 $2,000 $1.52 162d 1 0.33mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 968 $1,562 $1.61 0d 11 0.35mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1256 $1,990 $1.58 64d 1 0.44mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0 2.0 1320 $2,195 $1.66 165d 1 0.49mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0 1.0–2.0 771 $1,307 $1.70 0d 12 0.53mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1286 $2,100 $1.63 134d 1 0.57mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 885 $1,540 $1.74 0d 20 0.60mi
17629 N 8th Ave Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1010 $1,850 $1.83 65d 1 0.61mi
1021 W Campo Bello Dr Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1010 $1,800 $1.78 10d 1 0.65mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ 2.0 1.0 960 $2,200 $2.29 184d 1 0.74mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 956 $1,410 $1.47 1d 23 0.82mi
16036 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.5 1574 $1,950 $1.24 115d 1 0.83mi
16036 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.5 1574 $1,950 $1.24 114d 1 0.83mi
1009 W Michelle Dr Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1339 $1,850 $1.38 29d 1 0.84mi
18209 N 7th Dr Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1424 $2,100 $1.47 107d 1 0.86mi
18209 N 7th Dr Phoenix, AZ 3.0 2.0 1424 $2,100 $1.47 72d 1 0.86mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ 2.0 1.0 833 $1,300 $1.56 157d 1 0.87mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Lot size not available (source: owner)
Financial info
$250 annual tax (2025)
HOA & community
Land lease community with $1,100 monthly land leaseAssociation maintains grounds and streetsCommunity poolCommunity golfCommunity laundry

Exterior

Parking
2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces
Utilities
City waterPublic sewer
Home design
Manufactured / mobile housingFee simple ownership
Construction
Vinyl siding constructionMetal roofing
Exterior features
Vinyl sidingChain link fencingMetal roofDesert front and back yard

Interior

Kitchen
Eat-in kitchen
Bedrooms
3 possible bedrooms
Flooring
Laminate flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenFull bathroom in master bedroom
Laundry & utility
Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 145 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 144 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 143 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 142 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 141 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 139 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 138 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 137 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 136 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $49,900 Active 135 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 134 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 133 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $49,900 Active 132 DOM
  14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $49,900 Active 131 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $49,900 Active 130 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $49,900 Active 129 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 128 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 127 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $49,900 Active 126 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $49,900 Active 125 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 124 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 123 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 122 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 121 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 120 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 119 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $49,900 Active 118 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 117 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 116 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 115 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 114 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 113 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 112 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    price $49,900 Active 111 DOM
  35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
  37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
  38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
  39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 107 DOM
  40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 106 DOM
  41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 105 DOM
  42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 104 DOM
  43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
  44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
  45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 101 DOM
  46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
  47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 99 DOM
  48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 98 DOM
  49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 97 DOM
  50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $55,000 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$14,175
− Mortgage interest
−$2,795
− Property taxes
−$748
− Insurance
−$250
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,134
− Management
−$1,134
− Depreciation
−$1,452
Taxable income
$6,662
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,599
After-tax cash flow
$5,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,500–$16,500 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
  • Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lookout Mountain School C AZ #202/1,109 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Mountain Sky Middle School F AZ #90/218 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Thunderbird High School F AZ #109/381 Nat'l #10,753/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Glendale Union High School District (4285)
NCES district ID
0403450
Math proficiency
23% ▼ -38.00%
Reading proficiency
31% ▼ -19.00%
Median HH income
$40,846
Composite
22.81/100
National rank
#8020
State rank
#130 of 249 in AZ
B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

Score
75/100
State rank
#16
US rank
#3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Phoenix, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
City population
1,500,198
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
35,034
Household income
$77,369
Rent vs Own
40.4% rent · 59.6% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity
White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 22%
Languages at home
73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-06-15 Listed $67,000 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…