12505 W Bernice Ln · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,083 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 1.01 ac lot Est $217k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Move in ready
• Mountain views

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NATURAL DESERT LANDSCAPE
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - SH
• HOA & community: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Level (accessible)
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,083
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Corner lot; North/South exposure; Gravel road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified range; Gas hookup available
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $235k implies a 840% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,941 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6240 N Sundown Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,203 (+11%)	3mo	$240,000	$200	53
6270 N Sundown Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+14%)	6mo	$230,000	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,396
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-57,865
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $234,277

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $77	+0% $-4	+5% $-85	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-85	+0% $-4	+5% $77	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $55	base $-4	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $234,900 Active
18. 2017-05-03
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

19. 2017-04-28
    status Pending 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

20. 2017-03-26
    historical Active Contingent 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

21. 2017-03-05
    price $25,900 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

22. 2017-02-15
    listed $29,900 Active 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Lovely acre in Picture Rocks! Come and make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$968
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+685.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $234,900 MLSSAZ
• 2017-05-03 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-28 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-03-26 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2017-03-05 Price Changed $25,900 MLSSAZ
• 2017-02-15 Listed $29,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2018): $390 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.