58 Ford Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$154,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1993 7,840 sqft lot Est $131k · 18% over $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful vacation home with a water view from your front deck. Singlewide mobile home (1993 Heartland) with a lovely open floor plan from the living room to the kitchen. The kitchen cabinets are light in color and the home includes a refrigerator, electric range, microwave and has vinyl plank sheet flooring throughout. There are 3 bedrooms, two full baths; the main bedroom is on one end of the house and the other two at the other end. There is a separate laundry room which includes the washer/dryer. Living room wall decorations go with home. The home has a storage area underneath of the house (great for a golf cart and other items that you wish to store) and lots of parking space. You will enjoy the community amenities such as a gated entry, swimming pool, golf course, tennis courts, basketball courts, play areas, community boat ramp, fishing pier and pond. Some furnishings negotiable.

Key facts

• Great storage
• Gated community
• Front deck

Tags

• VIEWS OF LAKE
• FRONT DECK
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA
• GREAT STORAGE
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $67.50; Located in River Ridge Golf & Camping Club

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential / Vacation property; Single wide mobile home; One and one-half levels; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick and aluminum siding exterior; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Other roof type; Built as residential (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Boat slip; Front porch; Rear porch; No fencing; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings and window treatments; Basement (other type); Living room fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $155k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.58%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,040
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 & 97 Feather Trl	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-3%)	1mo	$127,400	$130	86
284 Feather Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,034 (+3%)	12mo	$95,000	$92	76
10 Forest Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+7%)	13mo	$188,500	$175	75
75 Elkhorn Trl	0.21mi	3/1.5	920 (-9%)	10mo	$107,000	$116	65
31 Feather Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+11%)	13mo	$184,000	$164	65
145 Fox Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-15%)	10mo	$86,000	$100	50
85 Lochsa Trl	0.63mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	1mo	$60,000	$67	48
599 Boardman Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+11%)	21mo	$200,000	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $28,253
• Equity at exit: $56,334

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $86,440
• Equity at exit: $77,582

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $400	+0% $347	+5% $293	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $272	+0% $347	+5% $421	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $386	base $347	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpoolsecurity

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $154,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$444
• After-tax cash flow: $3,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+3000.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $154,999 RVLG
• 2021-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-05 Sold (MLS) $80,000 RVLG
• 2021-02-02 Listed $82,000 RVLG
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RVLG
• 2018-08-29 Listed $69,000 RVLG
• 2013-07-26 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RVLG
• 2011-07-26 Listed $59,900 RVLG
• 1992-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $310 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.