18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 176 Lot 176 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1980 0.40 ac lot $138/sqft · 14% below area Est $232k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1980 MANUFACTURED HOME THAT IS BEAUTIFUL AND MOVE-IN READY!! - Just Reduced to 199,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths remodeled home that is just gorgeous inside and outside. This home is a golfer's dream with a workshop that is all set up to be golfer friendly plus storage. It has a lovely, large yard with grass, rose beds, and a concrete picnic/BBQ area under a beautiful California Live Oak Tree. The back deck is very large plus there is a sewing room. This home is definitely a must see for your retirement dream home. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large yard
• Back deck

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LARGE YARD
• CONCRETE PICNIC BBQ AREA
• BACK DECK
• SEWING ROOM
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $199k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.70%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,450
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	90
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	87
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	84
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-9%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	76
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+6%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	76
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+6%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	76
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-6%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	66
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	63
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #12	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	22mo	$129,000	$84	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $58,492
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $167,656
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $1,425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,538	-5% $1,482	+0% $1,425	+5% $1,369	+10% $1,313
Rent	-10% $1,160	-5% $1,293	+0% $1,425	+5% $1,558	+10% $1,690
Rate	-1.0pp $1,526	-0.5pp $1,476	base $1,425	+0.5pp $1,374	+1.0pp $1,321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $199,000 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    1980 MANUFACTURED HOME THAT IS BEAUTIFUL AND MOVE-IN READY!! - Just Reduced to 199,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths remodeled home that is just gorgeous inside and outside. This home is a golfer's dream with a workshop that is all set up to be golfer friendly plus storage. It has a lovely, large yard with grass, rose beds, and a concrete picnic/BBQ area under a beautiful California Live Oak Tree. The back deck is very large plus there is a sewing room. This home is definitely a must see for your retirement dream home. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

16. 2026-03-24
    listed $249,000 Active 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    1980 MANUFACTURED HOME THAT IS BEAUTIFUL AND MOVE-IN READY!! - Just Reduced to 199,000!! 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths remodeled home that is just gorgeous inside and outside. This home is a golfer's dream with a workshop that is all set up to be golfer friendly plus storage. It has a lovely, large yard with grass, rose beds, and a concrete picnic/BBQ area under a beautiful California Live Oak Tree. The back deck is very large plus there is a sewing room. This home is definitely a must see for your retirement dream home. This home is located in beautiful Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park; the monthly space rent here is 1750.00. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-04
    price $230,000
19. 2025-06-04
    price $250,000
20. 2025-02-12
    listed $295,000 Active
21. 2024-12-20
    historical
22. 2024-08-23
    price $295,900
23. 2024-04-19
    status Active
24. 2024-04-15
    status Pending Sale
25. 2024-03-06
    status Active
26. 2024-01-29
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2023-12-26
    listed $315,000 Active
28. 2023-08-25
    historical
29. 2023-03-31
    listed $325,000 Active
30. 1999-09-08
    soldstatus $62,000
31. 1999-07-11
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,219
• − Management: −$3,219
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $14,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,529
• After-tax cash flow: $13,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+206.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $295,900 CRMLS
• 2024-04-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-03-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-01-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-12-26 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
• 1999-09-08 Sold (MLS) $62,000 CRMLS
• 1999-07-11 Listed $64,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2013): $1,165 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.