3064 Culpepper Ln · Vernon, FL 32462

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1983 0.26 ac lot Est $97k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 960 sq ft single-wide mobile home offers a great opportunity for someone ready to create their own personalized space. The property is situated less than 1/8 mile from Culpepper Landing on Holmes Creek a popular boat launch providing easy access to Cypress Springs. This property is perfect for boating, fishing, kayaking, and enjoying Florida's natural beauty. The home features two bedrooms and two bathrooms, a spacious covered front porch ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation, a durable metal roof, and a convenient laundry/utility room addition built off the back. It offers open living space with plenty of room to update and personalize. This home needs some TLC and updating,

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Durable metal roof
• Covered overhang

Tags

• CYPRESS SPRINGS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• ADDITIONAL SHED
• COVERED OVERHANG

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Single wide mobile home
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room measuring 20 x 14; Covered front porch measuring 8 x 16

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#834 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kate M. Smith Elementary School (math 58% / reading 60%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 941 students, 61% FRL); Roulhac Middle School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Chipley High School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 588 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.21%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2987 Bruner Dairy Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	14mo	$109,000	$101	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $39,678
• Equity at exit: $36,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $100,491
• Equity at exit: $53,734

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32462

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $539	+0% $508	+5% $477	+10% $446
Rent	-10% $395	-5% $452	+0% $508	+5% $565	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $531	base $508	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $89,999 Active 1487-char remark
19. 2021-12-14
    historical
20. 2002-05-18
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $4,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #20536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Greek 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Current HPI: 221.7113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $89,999 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2002-05-18 Listed $29,900 CPARMLS