495 Grays Creek Church Rd · Rutherfordton, NC 28139

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 1.25 ac lot Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice brick home on 1.25 acre lot. House has been well maintained but with limited updates. House has three bedrooms and two full hall bathrooms. The galley type kitchen has nice darker stained cabinets and laminate counter tops. Seller had used the dining area beside the kitchen as more of a den area and have a dining table in the large front entry family room. The laundry hooks ups are on the back porch area. House has a partial unfinished basement with an entry from upstairs and also a double entry door from outside. The basement has a concrete floor with a drain but appears to stay very dry. HVAC is a propane furnace and a central air unit. Propane tank in back yard is leased. There is a small storage shed in mostly cleared and sloping back yard for lawnmower and other yard equipment. Concrete driveway has an extra pad and there is a two car metal carport beside the side entry to house. Sellers had vinyl double pane windows put in a few years back. This house is part of an estate.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• 500 sqft basement
• 24 x 25 workshop

Tags

• 24 X 25 WORKSHOP
• 10 FT HIGH GARAGE DOOR
• FENCED BACK YARD
• VARIETY OF FRUIT AND NUT TREES
• 500 SQFT BASEMENT
• RECENT INTERIOR UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residence (site built); One level; Brick exterior
• Construction: Site-built construction; Brick full exterior; Fiberglass roof; Basement and crawl space foundation; Built with a basement (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.25-acre lot; Concrete road access on a publicly maintained road; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-story layout; Basement with both interior and exterior entry; Unfinished basement with walk-up and walk-out access; Room count: 1
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($417/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Rutherfordton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#67 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harris Elementary School (math 56% / reading 50%, grade C, #344 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 445 students, 99% FRL); Chase Middle School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #209 of 475 statewide, top 45%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Chase High School (math 67% / reading 47%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 660 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $230k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,942 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,344
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Jim Dobbins Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+1%)	8mo	$214,000	$137	58
2450 Poors Ford Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,628 (+5%)	8mo	$234,000	$144	44
2433 Poors Ford Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,430 (-8%)	22mo	$245,000	$171	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,134
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,120
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28139

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $100	+0% $35	+5% $-30	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-37	+0% $35	+5% $106	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $93	base $35	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $229,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $229,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,500 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $236,500 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,500 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $236,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $236,500 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $236,500 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,500 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,500 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $236,500 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    status Active
19. 2026-05-08
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-22
    listed $236,500 Active
21. 2019-11-08
    soldstatus $125,500 Closed 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    Nice brick home on 1.25 acre lot. House has been well maintained but with limited updates. House has three bedrooms and two full hall bathrooms. The galley type kitchen has nice darker stained cabinets and laminate counter tops. Seller had used the dining area beside the kitchen as more of a den area and have a dining table in the large front entry family room. The laundry hooks ups are on the back porch area. House has a partial unfinished basement with an entry from upstairs and also a double entry door from outside. The basement has a concrete floor with a drain but appears to stay very dry. HVAC is a propane furnace and a central air unit. Propane tank in back yard is leased. There is a small storage shed in mostly cleared and sloping back yard for lawnmower and other yard equipment. Concrete driveway has an extra pad and there is a two car metal carport beside the side entry to house. Sellers had vinyl double pane windows put in a few years back. This house is part of an estate.

22. 2019-11-08
    soldstatus $125,500

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    Nice brick home on 1.25 acre lot. House has been well maintained but with limited updates. House has three bedrooms and two full hall bathrooms. The galley type kitchen has nice darker stained cabinets and laminate counter tops. Seller had used the dining area beside the kitchen as more of a den area and have a dining table in the large front entry family room. The laundry hooks ups are on the back porch area. House has a partial unfinished basement with an entry from upstairs and also a double entry door from outside. The basement has a concrete floor with a drain but appears to stay very dry. HVAC is a propane furnace and a central air unit. Propane tank in back yard is leased. There is a small storage shed in mostly cleared and sloping back yard for lawnmower and other yard equipment. Concrete driveway has an extra pad and there is a two car metal carport beside the side entry to house. Sellers had vinyl double pane windows put in a few years back. This house is part of an estate.

23. 2019-09-30
    historical Under Contract - Show 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    Nice brick home on 1.25 acre lot. House has been well maintained but with limited updates. House has three bedrooms and two full hall bathrooms. The galley type kitchen has nice darker stained cabinets and laminate counter tops. Seller had used the dining area beside the kitchen as more of a den area and have a dining table in the large front entry family room. The laundry hooks ups are on the back porch area. House has a partial unfinished basement with an entry from upstairs and also a double entry door from outside. The basement has a concrete floor with a drain but appears to stay very dry. HVAC is a propane furnace and a central air unit. Propane tank in back yard is leased. There is a small storage shed in mostly cleared and sloping back yard for lawnmower and other yard equipment. Concrete driveway has an extra pad and there is a two car metal carport beside the side entry to house. Sellers had vinyl double pane windows put in a few years back. This house is part of an estate.

24. 2019-09-25
    listed $129,900 Active 998-char remark

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    Nice brick home on 1.25 acre lot. House has been well maintained but with limited updates. House has three bedrooms and two full hall bathrooms. The galley type kitchen has nice darker stained cabinets and laminate counter tops. Seller had used the dining area beside the kitchen as more of a den area and have a dining table in the large front entry family room. The laundry hooks ups are on the back porch area. House has a partial unfinished basement with an entry from upstairs and also a double entry door from outside. The basement has a concrete floor with a drain but appears to stay very dry. HVAC is a propane furnace and a central air unit. Propane tank in back yard is leased. There is a small storage shed in mostly cleared and sloping back yard for lawnmower and other yard equipment. Concrete driveway has an extra pad and there is a two car metal carport beside the side entry to house. Sellers had vinyl double pane windows put in a few years back. This house is part of an estate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rutherfordton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #5114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,887

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.65%
• Current HPI: 249.7007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+82.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $236,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records
• 2019-11-08 Sold (MLS) $125,500 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-25 Listed $129,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.