13120 S Lee Shore Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1979 4,024 sqft lot $99/sqft · 46% above area Est $72k · 46% over $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity with reliable tenants. Recently renovated with new mini-split A/C in every room, fresh flooring, paint, and modern appliances. Updated faucets and fixtures mean no repairs required for new owner.

Key facts

• 4,024 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.64%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,000
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 45.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13169 S Lee Shore Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	964 (-9%)	1mo	$85,000	$88	74
13712 Lookout Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+8%)	5mo	$70,000	$61	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $35,793
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $83,910
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $852

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	0.21mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.89mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    listed $125,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Investment opportunity with reliable tenants. Recently renovated with new mini-split A/C in every room, fresh flooring, paint, and modern appliances. Updated faucets and fixtures mean no repairs required for new owner.

15. 2025-08-28
    historical $1,350
16. 2025-08-06
    price $1,350
17. 2025-08-01
    listed $1,450
18. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus
19. 2007-10-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,238/yr (+$103/mo · 181.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $9,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $8,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8520.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Rental Removed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $1,350 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2010-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $684 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.