2615 Flycatcher Dr · Denton, TX 76205

$449,247

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2025 6,499 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 5 BEDROOM Lark Floorplan-Elevation S with an estimated Summer Completion. The Lark plan is a one story home featuring approx 2,112 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, large open concept living-dining- kitchen, butler pantry, stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, pendant lights over large kitchen island, garden tub and walk-in shower in Bath 1 plus large walk-in closet, covered patio and 2 car garage. The Lark includes our America's Smart home technology base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your hom

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Open concept
• Butler pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• BUTLER PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• GARDEN TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Borman El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 429 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Denton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,621/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1268% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $262,119 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.50%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-150,515
• Equity at exit: $66,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-250,711
• Equity at exit: $38,843

Cash invested: $125,789 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76205

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,739/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-1,101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,015

Max offer price $289,945

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-790	-5% $-946	+0% $-1,101	+5% $-1,256	+10% $-1,411
Rent	-10% $-1,308	-5% $-1,204	+0% $-1,101	+5% $-997	+10% $-894
Rate	-1.0pp $-875	-0.5pp $-987	base $-1,101	+0.5pp $-1,217	+1.0pp $-1,336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,312
• Closing costs: $13,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	12d	1	0.26mi
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	0d	1	0.29mi
2201 Yellowhammer Rd Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2874	$3,150	$1.10	26d	1	0.34mi
2301 Ruff Rd Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.38mi
2605 Starling St Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2150	$2,850	$1.33	0d	1	0.40mi
2704 Donella Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,500	$1.32	45d	1	0.74mi
1324 Norman St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	0.99mi
1105 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,099	$1.50	45d	1	1.10mi
1007 W Collins St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,850	$1.09	20d	1	1.11mi
1103 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	45d	1	1.11mi
3108 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2124	$2,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.18mi
101 Daugherty St Denton, TX	4.0	4.0	1458	$694	$0.48	45d	1	1.21mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	4d	1	1.21mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	18d	1	1.21mi
2016 Pembrooke Pl Denton, TX	4.0	3.5	2820	$3,250	$1.15	6d	1	1.36mi
1112 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1606	$2,405	$1.50	45d	1	1.37mi
1029 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,200	$1.05	45d	1	1.40mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	14d	1	1.42mi
1009 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,970	$1.34	22d	1	1.46mi
1001 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,235	$1.48	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $449,247
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $453,785 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,165
• − Property taxes: −$6,739
• − Insurance: −$2,246
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,516
• − Management: −$2,516
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$13,069
• Taxable loss: −$21,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,978
• Household income: $68,600
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1268.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 290.7883
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $449,247 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $453,785 NTREIS

Property tax history

-13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.