49 Mespelt St · McGrath, AK 99627

$137,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 195 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot $76/sqft · 25% below area Est $184k · 25% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spanning 1800 sqft, this 4 bed 3.5 bath home includes the amenities needed to live comfortably in rural Alaska. McGrath is a lovely community located about an hour by plane from Anchorage. The Kuskokwim River borders the city and brings along with it an unparalleled blend of adventure and beauty. Brand new woodstove installed last year, and a backup Toyo stove rated for 3000 sqft!

Key facts

• Backup toyo stove
• Woodstove
• Kuskokwim river

Tags

• KUSKOKWIM RIVER
• WOODSTOVE
• BACKUP TOYO STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $137k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#190 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Iditarod Area School District (rural): math 6% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #46 of 53 in AK (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($947 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Yukon-Koyukuk County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $120,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.51%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,852
• List price: $137,000
• Delta: -25.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $41,995
• Equity at exit: $61,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $113,866
• Equity at exit: $94,935

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99627

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$171 /mo · $2,055/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $447	+0% $400	+5% $352	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $333	+0% $400	+5% $467	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $435	base $400	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $137,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $137,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $137,000 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,000 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,000 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Active 173 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Active 172 DOM
19. 2025-12-05
    listed $137,000 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Spanning 1800 sqft, this 4 bed 3.5 bath home includes the amenities needed to live comfortably in rural Alaska. McGrath is a lovely community located about an hour by plane from Anchorage. The Kuskokwim River borders the city and brings along with it an unparalleled blend of adventure and beauty. Brand new woodstove installed last year, and a backup Toyo stove rated for 3000 sqft!

20. 2024-09-09
    price $149,000
21. 2024-08-09
    price $159,000
22. 2024-07-19
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$2,055
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $2,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $4,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a fair condition. Significant investment is needed to address exterior siding, roof, flooring, and interior systems. However, with proper renovations, it has the potential to significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Peeling and damaged
• Major Roof — Visible damage
• Major Flooring — Worn and damaged
• Major Interior walls/paint — Peeling and worn
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in need of repair
• Major Plumbing, electrical, and HVAC — No visible systems in good condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding repair and painting — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Floor refinishing — Improves living space and rental appeal
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modernizes space and increases appeal
• Both Plumbing and electrical upgrades — Ensures safety and functionality
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Peeling and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Peeling and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and in need of repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Plumbing, electrical, and HVAC · No visible systems in good condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding repair and painting — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Improves living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modernizes space and increases appeal ↑
• Both Plumbing and electrical upgrades — Ensures safety and functionality ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iditarod Area School District
• NCES district ID: 0200520
• Math proficiency: 6% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,638
• Composite: 10.61/100
• National rank: #14660
• State rank: #46 of 53 in AK

Livability — McGrath

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #24711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McGrath, AK
• Population (ZIP): 195

Population outlook (Yukon-Koyukuk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,404 people
• By 2030: 5,290 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 4,962 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 4,570 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 3,847 · -28.8%
• By 2100: 3,213 · -40.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.92)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 42% White 27% Two or more races 21% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Serbian 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Yukon-Koyukuk

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-23.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $137,000 AKMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $149,000 AKMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $159,000 AKMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $179,000 AKMLS