315 W Mile 12 1/2 N · Olivarez, TX 78599

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1977 0.50 ac lot Est $200k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Single family residence in Weslaco, Hidalgo County, Texas. 4 bedrooms, 2 full bath, 1,200 sq. ft. of living area. Built in 1977. Located on a 0.50 acre lot. Affordable opportunity well below typical area pricing with strong value. Financing options available for a wide range of credit profiles. Suitable for owner-occupants seeking an accessible purchase and investors looking for a straightforward value add without taking on a severely distressed property. Property offers space, location, and long-term upside.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Olivarez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,480 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pfc Mario Ybarra El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 519 students, 90% FRL); Beatriz G Garza Middle (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 958 students, 76% FRL); Weslaco H S (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 2,553 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 59% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8403 Irene Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	17mo	$225,000	$167	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,032
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,388
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78599

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,082/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Farm to Market 88 Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	23d	1	0.34mi
5910 Ceniza Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2012-06-15
   soldstatus
4. 1996-01-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,082 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,082
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$45
• After-tax cash flow: $1,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Olivarez

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1480
• US rank: #25356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivarez, TX
• City population: 35,400
• Population (ZIP): 35,400

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 42% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 80%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.47%
• Current HPI: 243.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2012-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,082 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.