16326 Crockett Bend Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 1.08 ac lot Est $193k · 35% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained manufactured double wide home on a large acre plus lot. Home is lived in by original owner. All appliances stay except refrigerator. Home has both front and rear porches in a wonderful rural setting. This is a great starter home!

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Good condition
• Nearly 1 acre

Tags

• NEARLY 1 ACRE
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• GOOD CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available; Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Crockett Trace HOA (annual fee $240)

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.93%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,864
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16447 N Emerson Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$139,900	$89	78
16482 Pisces Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$96	71
16439 Brittany Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	10mo	$165,000	$123	45
16126 Tree Monkey Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+11%)	7mo	$429,000	$247	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,582
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $47,080
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,964/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	43d	1	0.41mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	1.18mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	43d	1	1.20mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $139,999 Active
15. 2013-03-25
    soldstatus
16. 2013-03-22
    soldstatus Sold 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Very well maintained manufactured double wide home on a large acre plus lot. Home is lived in by original owner. All appliances stay except refrigerator. Home has both front and rear porches in a wonderful rural setting. This is a great starter home!

17. 2013-03-17
    status Pending 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Very well maintained manufactured double wide home on a large acre plus lot. Home is lived in by original owner. All appliances stay except refrigerator. Home has both front and rear porches in a wonderful rural setting. This is a great starter home!

18. 2013-03-05
    status Pending, Continue to Show 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Very well maintained manufactured double wide home on a large acre plus lot. Home is lived in by original owner. All appliances stay except refrigerator. Home has both front and rear porches in a wonderful rural setting. This is a great starter home!

19. 2013-03-03
    listed $52,900 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Very well maintained manufactured double wide home on a large acre plus lot. Home is lived in by original owner. All appliances stay except refrigerator. Home has both front and rear porches in a wonderful rural setting. This is a great starter home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,964 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,964
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $6,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $6,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+164.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $139,999 HARMLS
• 2013-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-03 Listed $52,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,964 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.