2511 Pine Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$219,000

3 bd · None ba · 4,822 sqft · MultiFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 1925 2,436 sqft lot $45/sqft · 29% below area Est $308k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this solid brick mixed-use property on busy Pine Avenue in Niagara Falls, NY. The front retail or office space offers excellent visibility and steady foot traffic, making it ideal for a business looking for strong exposure. Behind the storefront are four residential units, including two studio apartments and two one-bedroom apartments, creating consistent rental income opportunities. This sale also includes the adjacent vacant lot at 2509 Pine Ave (APN 291100-159-026-0001-008-000). The lot offers 40 feet of frontage and 84 feet of depth, totaling 3,360 sq ft, and is paved with blacktop, providing valuable off-street parking and added convenience for both commercial and residential use. With a prime location surrounded by established businesses and local amenities, this property presents a strong investment opportunity for buyers seeking a versatile, income-producing asset in the heart of the Pine Avenue corridor.

Key facts

• 2,436 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,555/mo this rent would consume 158% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.80%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,317
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -28.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
742 19th St	0.40mi	3/2.5	4,275 (-11%)	6mo	$115,000	$27	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $276,208
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.54×
• Total profit: $768,731
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$957
• Net cashflow: $2,085

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 49%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$4,556
Total (4 units)			$4,555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-01-06
    listed $219,000 Active 952-char remark

    Show marketing remark (952 chars)

    Discover the potential of this solid brick mixed-use property on busy Pine Avenue in Niagara Falls, NY. The front retail or office space offers excellent visibility and steady foot traffic, making it ideal for a business looking for strong exposure. Behind the storefront are four residential units, including two studio apartments and two one-bedroom apartments, creating consistent rental income opportunities. This sale also includes the adjacent vacant lot at 2509 Pine Ave (APN 291100-159-026-0001-008-000). The lot offers 40 feet of frontage and 84 feet of depth, totaling 3,360 sq ft, and is paved with blacktop, providing valuable off-street parking and added convenience for both commercial and residential use. With a prime location surrounded by established businesses and local amenities, this property presents a strong investment opportunity for buyers seeking a versatile, income-producing asset in the heart of the Pine Avenue corridor.

16. 2025-12-03
    listed $214,900 Active
17. 2025-10-08
    price $215,000
18. 2025-06-20
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2025-04-15
    historical
20. 2025-02-21
    price $230,000
21. 2025-01-09
    listed $250,000 Active
22. 2015-11-18
    historical
23. 2015-07-24
    listed $195,000 Active
24. 2012-07-09
    listed $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,373
• − Management: −$4,373
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $22,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,495
• After-tax cash flow: $19,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $219,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $215,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $225,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $230,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $250,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-11-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-24 Listed $195,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-07-09 Listed $200,000 WNYREIS