21926 Messina Springs Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$317,990

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $344k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Ups

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $317,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2408

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built new construction (Dallas plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-926/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,400 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,344
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19067 Cetara Villa Dr	0.45mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,526 (+5%)	4mo	$359,990	$143	63
22011 Giulia Village Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	11mo	$359,040	$131	54
19554 Perissa Terrace Dr	0.26mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	12mo	$352,740	$129	49
21931 Corsica View Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	17mo	$405,990	$149	47
22010 Villa Terrace Dr	0.46mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,657 (+10%)	21mo	$436,425	$164	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-64,270
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-92,530
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $306,819

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $33	+0% $-77	+5% $-187	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-183	+0% $-77	+5% $29	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $4	base $-77	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $317,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $317,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$6,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home offers a spacious and modern floor plan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance.
• Both Service HVAC system — Ensures efficient operation and comfort for occupants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance. ↑
• Both Service HVAC system — Ensures efficient operation and comfort for occupants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B