2430 Manor Valley Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$394,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 2020 6,539 sqft lot $239/sqft · at area comps Est $400k · at est. $102/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this stunning single-story home that offers privacy and elegance, featuring a charming brick wall at the backyard, providing a peaceful backdrop without back neighbors. The residence boasts three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, designed with comfort and functionality in mind. The front elevation is truly picturesque, showcasing attractive architectural details that enhance curb appeal and create a welcoming first impression. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully planned layout that maximizes space and flow, making the home feel much larger than its actual size. Large windows and high ceilings invite abundant natural light, further amplifying the sense of openness. Step outside to a versatile outdoor space, perfect for summer barbecues, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing in your own tranquil oasis. This home combines beauty, practicality, and a prime location, making it an exceptional place to call home.

Key facts

• Front elevation
• Brick wall
• One story home

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• BRICK WALL
• FRONT ELEVATION
• OPEN PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $395k).
• Recommended offer: $347k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($347k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,424 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,076
• List price: $394,800
• Delta: -1.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (+8%)	9mo	$335,000	$187	60
1807 Meadow Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+6%)	23mo	$375,000	$214	38
8731 Arbor Trail Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+10%)	16mo	$320,000	$175	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-14,594
• Equity at exit: $82,801

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $7,704
• Equity at exit: $76,694

Cash invested: $110,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,070
• Tax from tax record: −$732 /mo · $8,787/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,885

Max offer price $394,800

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,700
• Closing costs: $11,844
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.32mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.57mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $394,800 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $394,800 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $394,800 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $394,800 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,800 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $394,800 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $394,800 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $394,800 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $394,800 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,800 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,800 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,800 Active 228 DOM
13. 2025-10-15
    listed $394,800 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Discover this stunning single-story home that offers privacy and elegance, featuring a charming brick wall at the backyard, providing a peaceful backdrop without back neighbors. The residence boasts three spacious bedrooms and two modern bathrooms, designed with comfort and functionality in mind. The front elevation is truly picturesque, showcasing attractive architectural details that enhance curb appeal and create a welcoming first impression. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully planned layout that maximizes space and flow, making the home feel much larger than its actual size. Large windows and high ceilings invite abundant natural light, further amplifying the sense of openness. Step outside to a versatile outdoor space, perfect for summer barbecues, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing in your own tranquil oasis. This home combines beauty, practicality, and a prime location, making it an exceptional place to call home.

14. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus Sold 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Beautiful one story home with no back neighbors, just a brick wall. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with the most beautiful front elevation! Great layout that feels much bigger than it is. Great open plan with room to entertain and enjoy!

15. 2020-08-25
    status Pending 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Beautiful one story home with no back neighbors, just a brick wall. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with the most beautiful front elevation! Great layout that feels much bigger than it is. Great open plan with room to entertain and enjoy!

16. 2020-06-19
    listed $295,990 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Beautiful one story home with no back neighbors, just a brick wall. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with the most beautiful front elevation! Great layout that feels much bigger than it is. Great open plan with room to entertain and enjoy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,787 · $732/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,787 · $732/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,115
• − Property taxes: −$8,787
• − Insurance: −$1,974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,499
• − Management: −$4,499
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$11,485
• Taxable income: $1,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$398
• After-tax cash flow: $7,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Listed $394,800 HARMLS
• 2020-09-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-19 Listed $295,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+46.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,787 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.