3695 Hickory Fork Rd · Gloucester Courthouse, VA 23061

$121,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,172 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1978 3.91 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3.91 acre level lot has 3 structures. .. the main 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home as well as detachedgarage in rear then another mobile home which the county says is taxed as personal property. All sold as-is.

Key facts

• Mobile home
• 3.91 acre level lot
• 3 structures

Tags

• 3.91 ACRE LEVEL LOT
• 3 STRUCTURES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MOBILE HOME

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Composition roof; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Approximately 3.91 acres; Zoned SC-1

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.5% in Gloucester Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#150 in VA, #4,823 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bethel Elementary (math 68% / reading 72%, grade A-, #311 of 1,108 statewide, top 28%, 498 students, 66% FRL); Peasley Middle (math 53% / reading 74%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 620 students, 37% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,185 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.29%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $47,415
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $127,523
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,121	-5% $1,087	+0% $1,053	+5% $1,018	+10% $984
Rent	-10% $873	-5% $963	+0% $1,053	+5% $1,142	+10% $1,232
Rate	-1.0pp $1,114	-0.5pp $1,083	base $1,053	+0.5pp $1,021	+1.0pp $989

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $121,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $121,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $121,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $121,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $121,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $121,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-20
    listed $121,000 Active
11. 2025-01-03
    status Active
12. 2025-01-03
    status Active
13. 2025-01-03
    historical
14. 2024-12-02
    historical
15. 2023-12-02
    status Pending
16. 2023-12-02
    status Under Contract
17. 2023-11-08
    price $121,000
18. 2023-11-08
    price $121,000
19. 2023-11-01
    status Active
20. 2023-11-01
    status Active
21. 2023-10-19
    status Under Contract
22. 2023-10-19
    status Pending
23. 2023-09-28
    price $149,900
24. 2023-09-28
    price $149,900
25. 2023-09-14
    listed $173,000 Active
26. 2023-09-14
    listed $173,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$27/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable income: $11,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,715
• After-tax cash flow: $9,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gloucester Courthouse

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #4823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,219
• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $121,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-01-03 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-12-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2023-12-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-12-02 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-11-08 Price Changed $121,000 REINMLS
• 2023-11-08 Price Changed $121,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-11-01 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2023-11-01 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2023-10-19 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-10-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $149,900 REINMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $149,900 CVRMLS
• 2023-09-14 Listed $173,000 REINMLS
• 2023-09-14 Listed $173,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $674 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.