404 E 20th St · Falls City, NE 68355

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1900 5,053 sqft lot $42/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a unique opportunity with major system upgrades already in place. The home features a durable metal roof, new HVAC system, and a tankless water heater for modern comfort and efficiency. Significant improvements include a replaced sewer lateral, all new PEX water lines, a water softener, and a newly constructed concrete basement. The electrical service has also been upgraded to a 200-amp panel, providing added capacity and peace of mind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home is finished with low-maintenance vinyl siding. A detached garage is present on the property and offers potential for rebuild or removal, allowing the next owner to customize the space to their needs.

Key facts

• New pex water lines
• Metal roof
• Water softener

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• REPLACED SEWER LATERAL
• NEW PEX WATER LINES
• WATER SOFTENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($946 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#35 in NE, #1,877 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Falls City Public Schools (town): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #88 of 111 in NE (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Richardson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Richardson County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $70k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,014
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -55.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1901 Mclean St	0.12mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,530 (-8%)	15mo	$50,000	$33	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $57,431
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.85×
• Total profit: $153,915
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68355

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $562

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $95,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    This property offers a unique opportunity with major system upgrades already in place. The home features a durable metal roof, new HVAC system, and a tankless water heater for modern comfort and efficiency. Significant improvements include a replaced sewer lateral, all new PEX water lines, a water softener, and a newly constructed concrete basement. The electrical service has also been upgraded to a 200-amp panel, providing added capacity and peace of mind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home is finished with low-maintenance vinyl siding. A detached garage is present on the property and offers potential for rebuild or removal, allowing the next owner to customize the space to their needs.

16. 2026-05-07
    price $99,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    This property offers a unique opportunity with major system upgrades already in place. The home features a durable metal roof, new HVAC system, and a tankless water heater for modern comfort and efficiency. Significant improvements include a replaced sewer lateral, all new PEX water lines, a water softener, and a newly constructed concrete basement. The electrical service has also been upgraded to a 200-amp panel, providing added capacity and peace of mind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home is finished with low-maintenance vinyl siding. A detached garage is present on the property and offers potential for rebuild or removal, allowing the next owner to customize the space to their needs.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $105,000 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    This property offers a unique opportunity with major system upgrades already in place. The home features a durable metal roof, new HVAC system, and a tankless water heater for modern comfort and efficiency. Significant improvements include a replaced sewer lateral, all new PEX water lines, a water softener, and a newly constructed concrete basement. The electrical service has also been upgraded to a 200-amp panel, providing added capacity and peace of mind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home is finished with low-maintenance vinyl siding. A detached garage is present on the property and offers potential for rebuild or removal, allowing the next owner to customize the space to their needs.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $110,000 New 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    This property offers a unique opportunity with major system upgrades already in place. The home features a durable metal roof, new HVAC system, and a tankless water heater for modern comfort and efficiency. Significant improvements include a replaced sewer lateral, all new PEX water lines, a water softener, and a newly constructed concrete basement. The electrical service has also been upgraded to a 200-amp panel, providing added capacity and peace of mind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home is finished with low-maintenance vinyl siding. A detached garage is present on the property and offers potential for rebuild or removal, allowing the next owner to customize the space to their needs.

19. 2017-09-06
    soldstatus $37,500
20. 2006-04-15
    soldstatus $39,250
21. 1999-07-15
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,211 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 110.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$908
• − Management: −$908
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Falls City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3170530
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,377
• Composite: 36.56/100
• National rank: #4637
• State rank: #88 of 111 in NE

Livability — Falls City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #1877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falls City, NE
• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Richardson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,601 people
• By 2030: 7,309 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 6,764 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 6,277 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 5,559 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 4,967 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richardson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.7% · R 75.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.67%
• Current HPI: 220.63
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $95,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $99,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $105,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $110,000 GPRMLS
• 2017-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2006-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $39,250 Public Records
• 1999-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $575 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.