40444 Black Bayou Ext · Gonzales, LA 70737

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 1965 0.73 ac lot $131/sqft · 11% below area Est $247k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

Key facts

• 0.73 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Duplessis Primary School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #173 of 646 statewide, top 27%, 634 students, 55% FRL); Central Middle School (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D+, #37 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 747 students, 50% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,901
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -10.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13417 Orleans Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-2%)	1mo	$260,000	$159	68
40449 Kathy St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-8%)	18mo	$230,000	$149	65
13285 Orleans Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+0%)	13mo	$262,900	$156	64
40434 La Hwy 621	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,840 (+10%)	2mo	$379,900	$206	56
40456 Barden Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-8%)	11mo	$278,000	$179	46
41244 Little Place Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,774 (+6%)	18mo	$140,000	$79	41
13505 Orleans Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	13mo	$265,000	$177	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,672
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,773
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,283/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $289	+0% $227	+5% $164	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $143	+0% $227	+5% $310	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $282	base $227	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14039 Young Rd Gonzales, LA	2.0	1.5	1385	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	0.86mi
13153 Ducks Landing St Gonzales, LA	4.0	3.0	1825	$2,750	$1.51	45d	1	0.97mi
14086 Airline Hwy Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,779	$1.52	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $229,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $235,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

19. 2026-05-15
    price $235,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

20. 2026-05-05
    price $245,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

21. 2026-05-05
    price $245,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

22. 2026-04-14
    listed $255,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

23. 2026-04-14
    listed $255,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!!! MUST SELL!!! Great opportunity to live in Ascension Parish! 3 year old roof! 2 year old Mo-dad! Situated on approximately 0.73 acres, this property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Property to be sold in its current condition, with no repairs to be made by the seller. Purchased within the past 1.5 years, the home offers a solid foundation with potential for customization and improvement. Subject to third party approval.

24. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2024-07-14
    status Pending
26. 2024-07-05
    listed $244,900 Active
27. 2024-07-05
    listed $244,900
28. 2023-08-09
    soldstatus $212,500
29. 2014-02-27
    soldstatus $65,000
30. 1998-05-12
    listed $85,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,283
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $2,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+173.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $235,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $235,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $245,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $245,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $255,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $255,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2024-07-14 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $244,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $244,900 GBRMLS
• 2023-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $212,500 Public Records
• 2014-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-12 Listed $85,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,283 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.