833 Bernie Ln · Madison Heights, MI 48071

$254,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1958 4,792 sqft lot Est $264k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Close to schools
• Close to freeways

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE OPEN BASEMENT
• VINYL WINDOWS
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO FREEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential zoning
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Partially finished concrete basement (has basement)
• Exterior features: Porch; Fenced yard; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.6% in Madison Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#62 in MI, #1,347 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D.
• Madison District Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #502 of 540 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,621 (2.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.39%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
833 Bernie Ln	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,998 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$118	99
822 Bernie Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (+6%)	0mo	$210,000	$99	81
942 E Gardenia Ave	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,780 (-11%)	2mo	$235,000	$132	72
205 Royal Park Ln	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,953 (-2%)	2mo	$310,000	$159	68
28686 Herbert St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (-4%)	3mo	$275,000	$144	65
28146 Park Ct	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,100 (+5%)	1mo	$235,000	$112	64
28419 Park Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+5%)	0mo	$260,000	$124	63
216 Royal Park Ln	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,106 (+5%)	3mo	$275,000	$131	60
28800 Tawas Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-6%)	2mo	$225,000	$120	58
28605 Diesing Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-6%)	2mo	$280,000	$149	49
1594 Harvard Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (-8%)	0mo	$415,000	$225	49
29064 Howard Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-13%)	1mo	$245,000	$141	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,407
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,548
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48071

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $254,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $393	+0% $320	+5% $248	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $223	+0% $320	+5% $418	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $385	base $320	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1045 E 12 Mile Rd Madison Heights, MI	3.0	1.0	1700	$4,000	$2.35	0d	1	0.59mi
642 Bellaire Ave Madison Heights, MI	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,423	$1.38	22d	1	0.84mi
1322 Elliott Ave Madison Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	19d	1	0.87mi
29607 Howard Ave Madison Heights, MI	3.0	2.5	1956	$1,950	$1.00	44d	1	1.00mi
740 Sheffield Dr Madison Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	2303	$2,000	$0.87	44d	1	1.07mi
28222 Saint Louise Dr Warren, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$5,500	$3.44	0d	1	1.09mi
1132 N Campbell Rd Royal Oak, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,085	$1.85	0d	8	1.24mi
406 N Campbell Rd Royal Oak, MI	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,500	$1.38	0d	1	1.32mi
2630 Antonia Ln Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	2264	$1,900	$0.84	45d	1	1.39mi
1106 Grove Ave Royal Oak, MI	4.0	2.5	1289	$2,325	$1.80	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

3. 2026-05-12
   listed $254,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

4. 2026-05-12
   listed $254,900 Active 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

5. 2026-05-12
   historical

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   Beautiful sought after Madison Hts, Unique opportunity to make this home yours. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, 2.5 car detached garage. Beautiful hardwood floors under carpet on first floor. Living room with large picture window with amazing natural light. First floor bedrooms with an additional 2 bedrooms on second floor. Many updates including Roof 2023, furnace 2019, vinyl windows. Large open basement with rec area with half bath and second laundry area. Close to schools, shopping and freeways. Hurry this home won't last long. BTVAI.

6. 2026-05-07
   price $281,900
7. 2026-05-07
   price $281,900
8. 2026-04-30
   listed $299,900 Active
9. 2026-04-30
   listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,120 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $3,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison District Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622290
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,297
• Composite: 12.89/100
• National rank: #9586
• State rank: #502 of 540 in MI

Livability — Madison Heights

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1347

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison Heights, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 28,419
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,419
• Household income: $69,503
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 786.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Asian 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.69%
• Current HPI: 243.4861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $254,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $254,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $281,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $281,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Listed $299,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Listed $299,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,314 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.