25231 Leather Leaf Ct · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$252,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 4,811 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 86171298 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ Imagination Homes proudly presents The Stanza floorplan! This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,927 SF of thoughtfully designed living space. The first floor features a bright open-concept layout connecting the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a central island, oversized pantry, and convenient access to the utility room. A powder bath near the entry is ideal for guests. The private first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a large bedroom, two walk-in closets, and an en-suite bath with dual vaniti

Key facts

• Central island
• Dual vanities
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS
• EN-SUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces north; One-story entry with additional upstairs bedrooms (two-story overall)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Quartz counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 13); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Loft; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $252,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,972.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,014 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,972
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25280 Leather Leaf Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+4%)	2mo	$261,990	$139	87
25564 Blossom Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+4%)	1mo	$263,990	$140	83
25494 Blossom Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (+4%)	0mo	$276,403	$147	80
25456 Blossom Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,932 (+7%)	0mo	$264,900	$137	78
5822 Agave Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (-2%)	2mo	$269,873	$152	77
25272 Leather Leaf Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-11%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	75
25446 Carnation Ct	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+10%)	1mo	$270,990	$137	74
25295 Leather Leaf Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-11%)	3mo	$254,990	$159	72
25427 Blossom Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (-7%)	3mo	$239,900	$143	72
25561 Blossom Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-11%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	70
25605 Microstar Way	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (-6%)	1mo	$239,000	$141	64
25319 Yellowbells Pl	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+14%)	2mo	$279,135	$136	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-55,515
• Equity at exit: $38,464

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-80,127
• Equity at exit: $22,305

Cash invested: $72,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $239,135

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,493
• Closing costs: $7,739
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	2d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $252,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,450
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$5,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $252,000 HARMLS