Bayshore w/Full Rear Porch Plan · Ellenton, FL 34222

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.6

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. This stunning, brand-new Skyline Home features the highly coveted Bayshore with Full Rear Porch floor plan, spanning 1,664 sq. ft. of masterfully designed living space. This 2 bedroom , 2 bath home creates an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings to create a bright, sophisticated atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired island kitchen, offering an expansive workspace and premium storage that makes both daily living and entertaining an absolute breeze.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Tennis courts
• Listed 51 days

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• SIX SPARKLING SWIMMING POOLS
• FIVE SOCIAL CLUBHOUSES
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

🏗️ New construction. The $149,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $190,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,000
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -21.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,606 (-4%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	72
85 Meadow Cir	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	14mo	$241,000	$149	68
165 Nightingale Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,720 (+3%)	10mo	$290,000	$169	66
181 Nightingale Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	9mo	$190,000	$117	62
180 Nightingale Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,504 (-10%)	2mo	$214,900	$143	61
17 Meadowlark Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-9%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	60
83 Eagle Cir	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,876 (+13%)	2mo	$207,000	$110	60
166 Nightingale Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-6%)	15mo	$187,000	$119	53
3445 71st Ave E	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,485 (-11%)	7mo	$240,000	$162	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-43,276
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-53,588
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 88 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $182,900 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 13 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $161,484

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-131	+0% $-197	+5% $-263	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-256	+0% $-197	+5% $-138	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-149	base $-197	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 S Utrecht St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,599	$1.10	0d	1	0.19mi
227 Endhoven St Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,499	$1.11	0d	1	0.21mi
311 Holland St Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,499	$0.96	0d	1	0.25mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,495	$1.31	71d	1	0.48mi
54 Colony Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	81d	1	0.48mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	98d	1	0.50mi
482 Outer Dr Unit 1 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,200	$1.55	9d	1	0.50mi
6812 Coconut Grove Cir Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	81d	1	0.66mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,392	$2.51	62d	61	0.76mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$1,976	$1.72	0d	54	0.76mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,250	$1.35	78d	1	0.79mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	116d	1	0.94mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,025	$1.62	9d	1	1.00mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	110d	1	1.02mi
5117 Tidewater Preserve Blvd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1731	$3,395	$1.96	9d	1	1.04mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	119d	1	1.05mi
4103 Rocky Fork Ter Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,845	$1.41	0d	1	1.07mi
1030 Overlook Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$4,500	$2.19	73d	1	1.21mi
1030 Overlook Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2055	$4,000	$1.95	9d	1	1.21mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	119d	1	1.22mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$5,000	$2.86	9d	1	1.28mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,318	$2.27	0d	15	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-25
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 55+ age-qualified home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious layout. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to make minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Integrating smart home technology can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blackburn Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B