347 Philadelphia Rd · Lawson, AR 71730

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1980 13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

12.6 acres with several Plum, Pear and Black Walnut trees. Bike trail through the land. Metal roof 2022.

Key facts

• Bike trail
• Metal roof
• 12.6 acres

Tags

• 12.6 ACRES
• PLUM TREES
• PEAR TREES
• BLACK WALNUT TREES
• BIKE TRAIL
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 12.6 acres (per tax records); Approximate interior area recorded as 1,132 (per tax records)
• Financial info: Annual taxes approximately $200

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic system
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/Vinyl siding; Paved road access; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Dishwasher; Refrigerator included; Central electric cooling; Central electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: El Dorado High School (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #182 of 292 statewide, top 63%, 1,303 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 61% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 35% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.25%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $15,754
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $48,449
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71730

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $69,000 New Listing 104-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 35% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $4,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $4,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado School District
• NCES district ID: 0505680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,122
• Composite: 27.36/100
• National rank: #6979
• State rank: #134 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lawson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,187

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,422 people
• By 2030: 35,808 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 32,605 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 29,688 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 23,691 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 17,950 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.36%
• Current HPI: 155.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $69,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+513.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +513.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.