124 Mintz Ln · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$173,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1943 0.26 ac lot $159/sqft · at area comps Est $180k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DISK GOLF ANYONE?? Here is a CUTE COTTAGE-STYLE HOME waiting for you that is overlooking a Disk Golf Park! The front yard has plenty of space for you to enjoy or add your touch on landscaping! The front porch invites you into the FAMILY ROOM with large windows to bring in tons of light! The light colored LVP flooring starts here and goes throughout the house! Through a large opening, you enter the DINING AND LIVING ROOM AREA that can seat as many people as you like with room for either a very large table or multiple tables! This room is connected to the kitchen for ease of access and entertainment! Again you will see VERY LARGE WINDOWS for natural light! The HALLWAY gives access to the front bedroom, the LAUNDRY, and then the FULL BATH, and TWO BEDROOMS in the back of the house. Each room is spacious with plenty of closet space! The FULL BATHROOM has a tub/shower combination and shelving for storage! This house has added protection with a moisture barrier encapsulation under the house and a humidity monitoring device. The BACKYARD is FENCED and has both MATURE TREES, GREEN GRASS, and OPEN AREAS for entertainment and even gardening! Here you will also see the DETACHED GARAGE with extra space for OUTDOOR STORAGE or HOBBIES! Schedule your showing now to see this GREAT OPPORTUNITY!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Green grass
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• MOISTURE BARRIER ENCAPSULATION
• HUMIDITY MONITORING DEVICE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• GREEN GRASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,385
• List price: $173,000
• Delta: -4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Rocky Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,183 (+9%)	6mo	$175,000	$148	66
311 Booth Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+12%)	6mo	$195,000	$160	64
102 Morris Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	958 (-12%)	4mo	$60,000	$63	63
602 Coulter Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	936 (-14%)	9mo	$110,000	$118	47
197 Pine St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+15%)	20mo	$225,000	$181	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,041
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $27,307
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $173,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $173,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-01-23
    price $173,000 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    DISK GOLF ANYONE?? Here is a CUTE COTTAGE-STYLE HOME waiting for you that is overlooking a Disk Golf Park! The front yard has plenty of space for you to enjoy or add your touch on landscaping! The front porch invites you into the FAMILY ROOM with large windows to bring in tons of light! The light colored LVP flooring starts here and goes throughout the house! Through a large opening, you enter the DINING AND LIVING ROOM AREA that can seat as many people as you like with room for either a very large table or multiple tables! This room is connected to the kitchen for ease of access and entertainment! Again you will see VERY LARGE WINDOWS for natural light! The HALLWAY gives access to the front bedroom, the LAUNDRY, and then the FULL BATH, and TWO BEDROOMS in the back of the house. Each room is spacious with plenty of closet space! The FULL BATHROOM has a tub/shower combination and shelving for storage! This house has added protection with a moisture barrier encapsulation under the house and a humidity monitoring device. The BACKYARD is FENCED and has both MATURE TREES, GREEN GRASS, and OPEN AREAS for entertainment and even gardening! Here you will also see the DETACHED GARAGE with extra space for OUTDOOR STORAGE or HOBBIES! Schedule your showing now to see this GREAT OPPORTUNITY!

16. 2026-01-13
    listed $184,900 Active 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    DISK GOLF ANYONE?? Here is a CUTE COTTAGE-STYLE HOME waiting for you that is overlooking a Disk Golf Park! The front yard has plenty of space for you to enjoy or add your touch on landscaping! The front porch invites you into the FAMILY ROOM with large windows to bring in tons of light! The light colored LVP flooring starts here and goes throughout the house! Through a large opening, you enter the DINING AND LIVING ROOM AREA that can seat as many people as you like with room for either a very large table or multiple tables! This room is connected to the kitchen for ease of access and entertainment! Again you will see VERY LARGE WINDOWS for natural light! The HALLWAY gives access to the front bedroom, the LAUNDRY, and then the FULL BATH, and TWO BEDROOMS in the back of the house. Each room is spacious with plenty of closet space! The FULL BATHROOM has a tub/shower combination and shelving for storage! This house has added protection with a moisture barrier encapsulation under the house and a humidity monitoring device. The BACKYARD is FENCED and has both MATURE TREES, GREEN GRASS, and OPEN AREAS for entertainment and even gardening! Here you will also see the DETACHED GARAGE with extra space for OUTDOOR STORAGE or HOBBIES! Schedule your showing now to see this GREAT OPPORTUNITY!

17. 2025-07-17
    historical
18. 2025-04-25
    listed $189,900 Active
19. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $170,000
20. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold
21. 2022-04-25
    historical Contingent
22. 2022-04-22
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2020-07-17
    soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $1,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $4,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+35.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $173,000 PARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $184,900 PARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) $170,000 PARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Listed $160,000 PARMLS
• 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,558 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.