2216 Douglas Dr · Alabaster, MI 48763-9445

$210,111

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 1950 0.97 ac lot $111/sqft · 16% below area Est $251k · 16% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! Welcome to your perfect Northern Michigan retreat in Tawas City, just steps from the beautiful shores of Lake Huron. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, nature, and location, with lake access conveniently located directly across the street. Inside, you’ll find a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, along with a bright and inviting sunroom where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views year-round. The home is equipped with a cozy wood-burning system, providing efficient heat and that classic up-north feel. Step outside to a large backyard featuring a seasonal stream, creating a serene and private setting. Garden enthusiasts will love the expansive garden space, offering endless potential for planting and outdoor enjoyment. A generous 24x30 garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this home offers an unbeatable location and lifestyle near Lake Huron.

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (39.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tawas Area Schools (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clara B Bolen Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 434 students, 64% FRL); Tawas Area Middle School (math 28% / reading 48%, grade F, #235 of 493 statewide, top 49%, 356 students, 53% FRL); Tawas Area High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 346 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,092 (39.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,166
• List price: $210,111
• Delta: -16.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Douglas Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,112 (+11%)	22mo	$635,000	$301	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,110
• Equity at exit: $94,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $54,904
• Equity at exit: $145,597

Cash invested: $58,831 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48763-9445

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,102
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $165,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-193	+0% $-253	+5% $-312	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-303	+0% $-253	+5% $-202	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-199	base $-253	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,528
• Closing costs: $6,303
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,111 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,111 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,111 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,111 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,111 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,111 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,111 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,111 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,111 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,111 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,111 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,111 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,111 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,111 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,111 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,111 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,111 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $210,111 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! Welcome to your perfect Northern Michigan retreat in Tawas City, just steps from the beautiful shores of Lake Huron. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, nature, and location, with lake access conveniently located directly across the street. Inside, you’ll find a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, along with a bright and inviting sunroom where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views year-round. The home is equipped with a cozy wood-burning system, providing efficient heat and that classic up-north feel. Step outside to a large backyard featuring a seasonal stream, creating a serene and private setting. Garden enthusiasts will love the expansive garden space, offering endless potential for planting and outdoor enjoyment. A generous 24x30 garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this home offers an unbeatable location and lifestyle near Lake Huron.

19. 2026-05-01
    price $265,111 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! Welcome to your perfect Northern Michigan retreat in Tawas City, just steps from the beautiful shores of Lake Huron. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, nature, and location, with lake access conveniently located directly across the street. Inside, you’ll find a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, along with a bright and inviting sunroom where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views year-round. The home is equipped with a cozy wood-burning system, providing efficient heat and that classic up-north feel. Step outside to a large backyard featuring a seasonal stream, creating a serene and private setting. Garden enthusiasts will love the expansive garden space, offering endless potential for planting and outdoor enjoyment. A generous 24x30 garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this home offers an unbeatable location and lifestyle near Lake Huron.

20. 2026-04-23
    price $275,111 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! Welcome to your perfect Northern Michigan retreat in Tawas City, just steps from the beautiful shores of Lake Huron. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, nature, and location, with lake access conveniently located directly across the street. Inside, you’ll find a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, along with a bright and inviting sunroom where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views year-round. The home is equipped with a cozy wood-burning system, providing efficient heat and that classic up-north feel. Step outside to a large backyard featuring a seasonal stream, creating a serene and private setting. Garden enthusiasts will love the expansive garden space, offering endless potential for planting and outdoor enjoyment. A generous 24x30 garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this home offers an unbeatable location and lifestyle near Lake Huron.

21. 2026-04-07
    listed $285,111 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    FIXER UPPER OPPORTUNITY!! Welcome to your perfect Northern Michigan retreat in Tawas City, just steps from the beautiful shores of Lake Huron. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, nature, and location, with lake access conveniently located directly across the street. Inside, you’ll find a spacious kitchen perfect for entertaining, along with a bright and inviting sunroom where you can relax and enjoy peaceful views year-round. The home is equipped with a cozy wood-burning system, providing efficient heat and that classic up-north feel. Step outside to a large backyard featuring a seasonal stream, creating a serene and private setting. Garden enthusiasts will love the expansive garden space, offering endless potential for planting and outdoor enjoyment. A generous 24x30 garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this home offers an unbeatable location and lifestyle near Lake Huron.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 128.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,769
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$1,051
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$6,112
• Taxable loss: −$6,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tawas Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633510
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,651
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4891
• State rank: #190 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alabaster

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-26.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $210,111 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $265,111 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $275,111 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $285,111 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.