4 C Robin St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$79,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1969 Average condition $82/sqft · 12% below area Est $91k · 12% under $470/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cedar Glen West Co-Op 55+ This is a Charming 1 bed, 1 bath home in desirable Cedar Glen West offering a Tranquil park like setting. Features include upgraded windows, Central A/C, Ceiling Fans. The Kitchen has Granite Counter Tops, Tile Backsplash And Ceramic Tile Flooring. The Bathroom has an updated Vanity and Light and Ceramic Tile Flooring , Gas Heat and Gas Cooking. The Community Recreation Hall offers shuffleboard, pool table, card table, and a library. Community bus service available for added convenience. HOA fee covers property taxes, water, sewer, lawn maintenance, and snow removal also repair or replace hot water and heating, roof and gutters.

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Central a/c
• Upgraded windows

Tags

• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• CENTRAL A/C
• CEILING FANS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,200/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.40%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,530
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -11.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Dove St Unit D	0.08mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$80,000	$82	92
16 B Dove St	0.18mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	4mo	$73,000	$75	88
1 B W Lake Dr	0.27mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$56,000	$58	87
18 Dove St Unit A	0.18mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	9mo	$69,900	$72	84
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	9mo	$57,500	$59	84
12 Heron St Unit D	0.25mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$122	83
17 Heron St Unit D	0.26mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	7mo	$55,000	$57	82
22 C Robin St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$158,000	$163	80
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.32mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$53,000	$55	80
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.37mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$45,000	$46	76
6 C Swallow St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$113	76
13B Pheasant St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	3mo	$95,500	$87	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $32,966
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $88,721
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,999 ($93/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $771	-5% $743	+0% $716	+5% $688	+10% $661
Rent	-10% $542	-5% $629	+0% $716	+5% $803	+10% $890
Rate	-1.0pp $756	-0.5pp $736	base $716	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	139d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Cedar Glen West)Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include community room, clubhouse, bocci, landscaping, common accessAssociation fee covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterNo pool listed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline/shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveStove hoodRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Light fixturesBlinds/shadesNo fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $470/mo · $5,640/yr

• Likely covers: watersewergassnow removalpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $79,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $79,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $79,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 79 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 74 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 73 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 71 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $8,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,953
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,850–$14,550 screening

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed. It has a charming exterior and interior, but some maintenance and updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Ivy overgrown — Overgrown ivy can be trimmed and pruned
• Minor Exterior paint — Painted exterior could be refreshed

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim and prune ivy — Maintains curb appeal and prevents ivy from damaging siding ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Cedar Glen West)Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include community room, clubhouse, bocci, landscaping, common accessAssociation fee covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterNo pool listed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline/shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveStove hoodRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Light fixturesBlinds/shadesNo fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $79,900 MOMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $79,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $85,000 MOMLS