639 16th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 1,870 sqft lot Est $123k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Brick 2 Family remodeled 1st floor apartment, has central air. 2 gas furnaces, 2 gas HW tanks, 2 electric down rented to nephew cheap $200.00 2nd fl. vacant tenant on month to month tenancy.

Key facts

• Hot water tanks
• Walk-up attic space
• 1,870 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED FIRST-FLOOR UNIT
• TWO SEPARATE GAS FURNACES
• HOT WATER TANKS
• WALK-UP ATTIC SPACE
• VERY WALKABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property contains 2 rental units; Unit 1 rent: $850 (2 bed / 1 bath); Unit 2 rent: $760 (2 bed / 1 bath); Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story building; Resale property; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 34 x 55

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater (appliance noted)
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring in parts of the home; Flooring varies throughout
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Varied and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas meters for each unit; Separate electric meters for each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $398/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,320/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $139k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.57%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1535 Pierce Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,724 (-2%)	2mo	$35,000	$20	72
614 20th St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,570 (-11%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	70
541 20th St	0.29mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+9%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	66
420 18th St	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-8%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	65
2615 Ferry Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+5%)	6mo	$115,000	$62	55
555 25th St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,619 (-8%)	7mo	$128,000	$79	54
346 Portage Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+10%)	4mo	$142,500	$73	54
2459 La Salle Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,920 (+9%)	2mo	$160,000	$83	53
609 24th St	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+13%)	4mo	$140,000	$70	51
2449 Grand Ave	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (+9%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	51
1623 Linwood Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,994 (+13%)	3mo	$100,000	$50	48
1811 Weston Ave	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,998 (+13%)	6mo	$140,000	$70	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $138,805
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.26×
• Total profit: $399,376
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,988/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,320
Total (2 units)			$2,320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.20mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.38mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	0.77mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.86mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,988
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $7,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $7,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+298.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $139,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-20 Rental Removed $850 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-03-07 Listed for Rent $850 PROPERTYWARE
• 2015-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $40,600 Public Records
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $28,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-20 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,988 · +29.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.