3509 Evergreen Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$99,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 492 Days on market

Built 1997 3,049 sqft lot $82/sqft · 29% below area Est $141k · 29% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in charming Granbury. It boasts a detached utility garage as well as a generous open floor plan. The primary suite with attached bathroom has a huge soaker tub AND separate shower. This one is a must see & will not last long! Owner Financing Available! Call or text to set up your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Huge soaker tub

Tags

• DETACHED UTILITY GARAGE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• HUGE SOAKER TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 492 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 492 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.89%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,635
• List price: $99,995
• Delta: -28.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3425 Evergreen Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	2mo	$162,000	$136	93
3210 Robinhood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$144,900	$113	70
3011 Mistletoe St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	6mo	$139,400	$115	64
4321 Terri Lee Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+14%)	19mo	$189,000	$136	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $27,876
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $72,236
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $27,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $99,995

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,999
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.30mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.46mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,995 Active 492 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,995 Active 491 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,995 Active 490 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,995 Active 489 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,995 Active 487 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,995 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,995 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,995 Active 481 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,995 Active 478 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,995 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,995 Active 476 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,995 Active 475 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,995 Active 474 DOM
14. 2025-11-20
    price $99,995 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in charming Granbury. It boasts a detached utility garage as well as a generous open floor plan. The primary suite with attached bathroom has a huge soaker tub AND separate shower. This one is a must see & will not last long! Owner Financing Available! Call or text to set up your showing today!

15. 2025-02-11
    listed $125,000 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Don't miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in charming Granbury. It boasts a detached utility garage as well as a generous open floor plan. The primary suite with attached bathroom has a huge soaker tub AND separate shower. This one is a must see & will not last long! Owner Financing Available! Call or text to set up your showing today!

16. 2025-01-24
    soldstatus
17. 2024-12-09
    historical
18. 2024-09-09
    price $125,000
19. 2024-07-09
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2023-10-25
    historical
21. 2023-10-24
    historical
22. 2023-10-24
    historical
23. 2023-10-01
    historical $1,295
24. 2023-09-29
    historical $1,295
25. 2023-09-28
    price $129,000
26. 2023-09-28
    price $129,000
27. 2023-09-28
    price
28. 2023-08-11
    price $1,295
29. 2023-08-11
    price $1,295
30. 2023-07-01
    listed $129,000
31. 2023-06-30
    listed Active
32. 2023-06-29
    listed $149,000 Active
33. 2023-06-29
    listed $149,000 Active
34. 2022-12-03
    listed $150,000 Active
35. 2022-11-03
    soldstatus
36. 2020-05-11
    soldstatus
37. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 92.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $7,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $99,995 NTREIS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-10-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-01 Rental Removed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-29 Rental Removed $1,295 RENT.
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $1,295 RENT.
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-01 Listed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-30 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-03 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $952 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.