2626 Fm 1854 · Lockhart, TX 78616

$234,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot $150/sqft · 31% below area Est $341k · 31% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unrestricted 1 acre flat lot offering endless possibilities! This double-wide mobile home features 3 spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and an on-site RV hookup. Perfect for those seeking space, flexibility, freedom to make it their own or future expansion.

Key facts

• 1 acre flat lot
• On-site rv hookup
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE FLAT LOT
• ON-SITE RV HOOKUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($983/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,529 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,958
• List price: $234,999
• Delta: -31.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $133,160
• Equity at exit: $211,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $387,942
• Equity at exit: $456,551

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $234,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,999 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,999 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,999 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,999 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,999 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,999 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,999 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,999 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,999 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,999 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,999 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,999 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,999 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $234,999 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Unrestricted 1 acre flat lot offering endless possibilities! This double-wide mobile home features 3 spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and an on-site RV hookup. Perfect for those seeking space, flexibility, freedom to make it their own or future expansion.

15. 2026-03-12
    price $249,999 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Unrestricted 1 acre flat lot offering endless possibilities! This double-wide mobile home features 3 spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and an on-site RV hookup. Perfect for those seeking space, flexibility, freedom to make it their own or future expansion.

16. 2026-02-02
    listed $265,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Unrestricted 1 acre flat lot offering endless possibilities! This double-wide mobile home features 3 spacious bedrooms with walk in closets and an on-site RV hookup. Perfect for those seeking space, flexibility, freedom to make it their own or future expansion.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,034/yr (+$253/mo · 239.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $1,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This double-wide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Fresh paint and new flooring would significantly enhance its curb appeal and resale potential.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Slight wear
• Minor flooring — Some wear
• Minor interior paint — Some wear
• Minor HVAC filters — Standard maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics
• Rental Service HVAC units — Well-maintained HVAC attracts renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC filters · Standard maintenance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics ↑
• Rental Service HVAC units — Well-maintained HVAC attracts renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,348
• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $234,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $249,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $265,000 Unlock MLS