15040 Sterling Oaks Dr · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$499,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2002 $604/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous lake views with an extended screened lanai with tile surface flooring. Newer roof yr 2022, remodeled modern gorgeous kitchen. Spacious and bright attached villa with 3 bedrooms + spacious loft, 3 full bathrooms, 2 car garage. Must-see loft-den space that a creative buyer can perhaps convert to a bedroom. Costly and impressive brick paver driveway and front walkway. Resort amenity-rich Naples community 3 miles to beach. The new Sterling Oaks enjoyed a major community amenity renovation-rebuild. It is truly stunning, yet affordable fees for enjoying Junior Olympic heated pool, spa, cabana bar at pool, clubhouse, interior bar, dining, fitness center, incredible tennis and pickle ball

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Other

• Possession: Possession at closing
• Multi-unit information: 736 units in the community; Unit is part of a complex with 2 floors

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master association fee $604 per month; Total annual recurring fees $7,248; Total one-time fees $6,800; On-site management; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (exterior), recreation facilities, street lights and maintenance, legal/accounting, manager; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, spa/hot tub, exercise room, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball, sidewalks, streetlights, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential villa (attached); Built in 2002; Rear exposure facing northeast; 2-story building design (unit in a 2-floor complex); Located in Sterling Oaks (Wildcat Cove sub-association)
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Water feature / lake view; Double-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Private road access; Zero lot line; Irrigation (central)

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric cooktop; Wall oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Volume ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Breakfast bar / Dining in living area; Den (study); Great room; Guest bath; Laundry in residence; Loft; Screened lanai/porch; 3 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $484k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,514/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $484,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-67,864
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-82,996
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,880/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$604
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,158
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,942

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $735	-5% $593	+0% $452	+5% $311	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $234	+0% $452	+5% $670	+10% $888
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $579	base $452	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14907 Sterling Oaks Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1760	$6,500	$3.69	24d	1	0.08mi
1214 Sweetwater Ln #2306 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1378	$6,500	$4.72	24d	1	0.24mi
15985 Arbor View Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1208	$2,062	$1.71	14d	14	0.28mi
1117 Sweetwater Ln #2201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$6,500	$5.45	24d	1	0.34mi
9855 Costa Mesa Ln #403 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,600	$1.40	24d	1	0.43mi
1250 Silverstrand Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1848	$5,000	$2.71	24d	1	0.44mi
1420 Sweetwater Cv #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	24d	1	0.46mi
1420 Sweetwater Cv #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	22d	1	0.46mi
1325 Sweetwater Cv #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	24d	1	0.47mi
9851 Costa Mesa Ln Unit 1546344P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$1,935	$1.62	17d	1	0.49mi
1415 Sweetwater Cv #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,500	$4.71	24d	1	0.49mi
1390 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	14d	1	0.50mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	24d	1	0.50mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	14d	1	0.50mi
1340 Sweetwater Cv #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	24d	1	0.52mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	24d	1	0.52mi
1345 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	24d	1	0.52mi
28460 Highgate Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1871	$10,500	$5.61	24d	1	0.55mi
28790 Versol Dr Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$3,391	$3.15	2d	19	0.64mi
28700 Trails Edge Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,175	$1.49	4d	2	0.72mi
9908 White Sands Pl Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$7,500	$4.11	24d	1	0.73mi
28387 Las Palmas Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1705	$6,200	$3.64	24d	1	0.74mi
1130 Turtle Creek Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,145	$2.68	14d	22	0.77mi
9111 Las Maderas Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$7,500	$4.62	24d	1	0.87mi
28119 Tamberine Ct #1412 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$5,800	$3.64	24d	1	0.90mi
9021 Las Maderas Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1674	$7,500	$4.48	24d	1	0.90mi
9651 Spanish Moss Way #4121 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$4,800	$2.58	24d	1	0.90mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	24d	1	0.90mi
9030 Las Maderas Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1432	$2,500	$1.75	24d	1	0.91mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	17d	1	0.92mi
28105 Mandolin Ct #213 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	24d	1	0.94mi
9050 Las Maderas Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,100	$1.54	24d	1	0.94mi
9631 Spanish Moss Way #3922 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$6,000	$3.99	4d	1	0.95mi
28052 Palmas Grandes Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$7,200	$4.80	24d	1	0.97mi
8981 Palmas Grandes Blvd #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1791	$7,500	$4.19	24d	1	0.98mi
9621 Spanish Moss Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$5,125	$3.41	24d	2	0.99mi
8990 Palmas Grandes Blvd #201 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1797	$5,000	$2.78	24d	1	1.01mi
9050 Palmas Grandes Blvd #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	24d	1	1.02mi
28251 Lisbon Ct #3412 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1637	$5,500	$3.36	24d	1	1.03mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	24d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $604 · $7,248/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $499,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $499,000 Active
16. 2001-05-07
    soldstatus $8,750,000
17. 1996-10-07
    soldstatus $11,235,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,142 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$3,880
• − Insurance: −$4,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,294
• − Management: −$5,294
• − HOA: −$7,248
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$2,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$560
• After-tax cash flow: $5,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2001-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $8,750,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $11,235,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,880 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.