11500 Johns Rd · Anchorage, AK 99515

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1963 1.43 ac lot Est $459k · 46% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own 1.4 wooded acres, in a highly desirable, South Anchorage location! Built in the early days of Anchorage growth, this original, fixer upper log home has been in the same family for decades and is full of character and history. This home features a light-filled living room surrounded by large windows, a functional eat-in kitchen, and the cozy charm of a classic Alaskan cabin. The bedrooms are modest in size, reflecting the era in which the home was built. Outside, the property includes a large older detached shop with potential for storage, workshop space, or future renovation. Mature trees provide privacy and a peaceful setting despite the convenience of being close t

Key facts

• Adu potential
• Wooded acres
• Detached shop

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• DETACHED SHOP
• MATURE TREES
• ADU POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Not new construction; Not attached; Built in 1963; Construction includes block and log; Foundation described as other; Approximately 1.43 acres lot
• Construction: Block and log construction; Metal roof; Built in 1963
• Exterior features: Private yard; Located in a fire service area; Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 half bathrooms (no full or 3/4 baths listed)
• Interior features: Basement; Fireplace; Vaulted ceilings; Workshop; Bedroom and bathroom on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Klatt Elementary (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 342 students, 65% FRL); Hanshew Middle School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #27 of 36 statewide, top 74%, 691 students, 42% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $238,727 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.05%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $459,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11500 Johns Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,932 (+11%)	0mo	$249,000	$129	77
311 Pettis Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	1mo	$469,900	$276	73
1105 E Klatt Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,700 (-2%)	1mo	$505,000	$297	65
166 Ocean Park Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-12%)	4mo	$365,000	$238	64
369 Breeze Ct #13	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,661 (-4%)	10mo	$394,000	$237	58
260 Dailey Ave #14	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,923 (+10%)	0mo	$499,900	$260	58
241 Mariner Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,740 (0%)	10mo	$495,000	$284	57
12130 Timberlane Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+6%)	5mo	$569,000	$310	54
12120 Johns Rd	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,906 (+10%)	6mo	$369,000	$194	52
268 Dailey Ave	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,962 (+13%)	10mo	$529,000	$270	49
130 Showers Ave	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,485 (-15%)	2mo	$380,000	$256	48
840 Allison Cir	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,948 (+12%)	6mo	$515,000	$264	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,124
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,534
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99515

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,387 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,287/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 Dailey Ave Unit A3 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,325	$1.94	43d	1	0.45mi
450 Dailey Ave Apt 3A Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,325	$1.94	23d	1	0.45mi
470 Dailey Ave Apt 8B Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,325	$1.94	43d	1	0.46mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	43d	1	0.65mi
12520 Tanada Loop Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,700	$1.61	43d	1	1.10mi
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,595	$2.22	13d	10	1.18mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $249,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   price $249,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $380,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $380,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $495,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,287 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,287 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,287
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$2,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $2,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,870
• Household income: $113,995
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 4% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.45%
• Current HPI: 283.2778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $495,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,287 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.