12 Cardinal Ln · Essex, MD 21221

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition $50/sqft · 82% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own this home in a desirable Essex area, this home is located in a quite community with easy access to main roads, shops and restaurants. It features recent renovations to bathoom, fresh paint and flooring and a brand new HVAC system.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Recent renovations
• Essex area

Tags

• ESSEX AREA
• QUITE COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS
• RECENT RENOVATIONS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.7% vs local median 4.8% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.79%
• DSCR: 5.35
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,824
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -81.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
918 Martin Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0	780 (-2%)	13mo	$215,000	$276	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $48,696
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.48×
• Total profit: $105,922
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 S Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	888	$1,375	$1.55	5d	1	0.18mi
1302 Sugarwood Cir #102 Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	922	$1,800	$1.95	44d	1	0.58mi
4 Banyan Wood Ct #103 Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	980	$1,700	$1.73	16d	1	0.59mi
21 Waterwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	809	$1,296	$1.60	13d	1	0.68mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	500	$1,272	$2.54	44d	42	0.69mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	500	$1,241	$2.48	2d	49	0.69mi
1114 Tace Dr Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	796	$1,291	$1.62	2d	34	0.71mi
1207 Middleborough Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,360	$1.60	5d	1	0.73mi
710h Snowberry Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,382	$2.54	5d	1	0.73mi
305 S Marlyn Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	676	$1,300	$1.92	44d	1	0.81mi
1300 Middleborough Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	578	$1,365	$2.36	44d	1	0.86mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	5d	1	0.88mi
1460 Hadwick Dr Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	661	$1,308	$1.98	5d	1	0.95mi
1103 Country Terrace Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	544	$1,308	$2.40	5d	1	0.97mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	5d	1	0.99mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	24d	1	1.23mi
28 Warren Rd Apt B Essex, MD	1.0	1.0	570	$875	$1.54	44d	1	1.31mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,198	$1.66	3d	5	1.35mi
165 Hampshire Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	969	$1,895	$1.96	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-03-06
    listed $49,900 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this home in a desirable Essex area, this home is located in a quite community with easy access to main roads, shops and restaurants. It features recent renovations to bathoom, fresh paint and flooring and a brand new HVAC system.

15. 2026-02-28
    historical
16. 2026-01-19
    price $55,000
17. 2025-08-23
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,941
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,626
• After-tax cash flow: $8,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent renovations and a good location. It has potential for further value increase with exterior painting and a new HVAC system.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's resale value.
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS