405 E 12th St · Lexington, NE 68850

$65,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1915 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.6% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in NE, #4,483 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lexington Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 111 in NE (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.94%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,525
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 E 12th St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,675 (0%)	2mo	$66,000	$39	91
1205 N Pierce St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,741 (+4%)	8mo	$190,000	$109	69
1112 N Fillmore St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (-9%)	11mo	$225,000	$147	60
501 N Monroe St	0.53mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+4%)	2mo	$210,000	$121	60
1702 Hoover St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (+3%)	10mo	$249,000	$145	54
504 E 5th St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-7%)	4mo	$150,000	$96	52
108 W 18th St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-2%)	20mo	$240,000	$146	49
411 W 13th St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,784 (+6%)	16mo	$185,000	$104	43
1813 N Hoover St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (+5%)	15mo	$249,900	$143	41
304 Apache Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,913 (+14%)	14mo	$282,000	$147	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $31,014
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $80,680
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68850

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,776/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $670	+0% $651	+5% $633	+10% $615
Rent	-10% $535	-5% $593	+0% $651	+5% $710	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $684	-0.5pp $668	base $651	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 E 7th St Unit 14-1114 Lexington, NE	3.0	2.0	1360	$768	$0.56	44d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-09
   soldstatus $66,000 Sold 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

2. 2026-04-09
   soldstatus $66,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

3. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

5. 2026-03-04
   price $65,000

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

6. 2026-03-04
   price $65,000 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

7. 2026-02-10
   price $78,000
8. 2026-02-04
   price $78,000 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

9. 2026-01-12
   price $89,900

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

10. 2026-01-12
    price $89,900 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

11. 2025-12-11
    price $95,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

12. 2025-11-19
    listed $97,900 New 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

13. 2025-11-19
    listed $95,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath property is ideal for anyone looking for a renovation project. It will be sold strictly as-is, providing the chance to remodel and add value. Perfect for investors or buyers with a vision to transform the home to their liking. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

14. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $105,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Plenty of room. Second floor has a front room and 2 bedrooms”great for teenagers. Lots of ceramic tile. Oak staircase. -

15. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $105,100

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Plenty of room. Second floor has a front room and 2 bedrooms”great for teenagers. Lots of ceramic tile. Oak staircase. -

16. 2018-06-15
    listed $99,950 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Plenty of room. Second floor has a front room and 2 bedrooms”great for teenagers. Lots of ceramic tile. Oak staircase. -

17. 2003-09-16
    soldstatus $37,900
18. 2003-09-12
    soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,776
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,743
• After-tax cash flow: $6,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,799
• Composite: 26.54/100
• National rank: #7195
• State rank: #106 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #4483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, NE
• County: Dawson County · 12,428 people
• City population: 12,428
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• Population (ZIP): 12,428
• Household income: $69,238
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 23% Two or more races 18% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 56% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+74.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Sold (MLS) $66,000 GIBOR
• 2026-04-09 Sold (MLS) $66,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — GIBOR
• 2026-03-23 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $65,000 GIBOR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $65,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $78,000 GIBOR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $78,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $89,900 GIBOR
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $89,900 GPRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $95,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $95,000 GIBOR
• 2025-11-19 Listed $97,900 GPRMLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,100 Public Records
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GMNMLS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $99,950 GMNMLS
• 2003-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records
• 2003-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,776 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.