15063 Goujon Gates Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$328,991

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,666 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 $99/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Somerset Floor Plan - The first level of this two-story home is host to a generous open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. The covered patio is great for entertaining guests. Also on the first floor is a secondary bedroom and office off the entry, as well as the owner’s suite at the back of the home. Two more secondary bedrooms are situated upstairs, surrounding a versatile game room. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Secondary bedroom
• Open floorplan
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: C.I.A. Services; Annual association fee of $1,185

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $328,991 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,567.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-669 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,839 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,567
• List price: $328,991
• Delta: -22.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-110,612
• Equity at exit: $63,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-148,579
• Equity at exit: $36,622

Cash invested: $118,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,221
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $305,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-429	-5% $-549	+0% $-669	+5% $-789	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-867	-5% $-768	+0% $-669	+5% $-570	+10% $-471
Rate	-1.0pp $-456	-0.5pp $-561	base $-669	+0.5pp $-779	+1.0pp $-890

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,892
• Closing costs: $12,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $328,991 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $328,991 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $328,991 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $328,991 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $328,991 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $328,991 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   listed $328,991 Active 585-char remark
8. 2026-05-14
   historical
9. 2026-05-05
   price $328,991
10. 2026-04-28
    price $328,990
11. 2026-04-28
    price $328,990
12. 2026-04-24
    price $333,440
13. 2026-04-23
    price $333,440
14. 2026-04-04
    price $342,440
15. 2026-04-03
    price $342,440
16. 2026-02-13
    listed $354,990 Active
17. 2026-01-21
    price $354,990
18. 2026-01-21
    listed $427,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,021 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,175/yr (+$348/mo · 226.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,726
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$2,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$12,322
• Taxable loss: −$15,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $328,991 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $328,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $333,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $342,440 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $354,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $427,990 HARMLS