3411 Stag Ln · Mount Pocono, PA 18466

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1986 $179/sqft · 6% above area Est $330k · 30% under $1750/mo HOA · 99% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable updated bi level with plenty of space. Large family room downstairs. includes 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Definitely a must see!NO showings until 04/13/2026

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -4.1% vs local median 5.2% in Mount Pocono — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $230k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 99% of rent.

Recommended offer $177,458 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: -4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -37.07%
• DSCR: -0.65
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,625
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -30.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Echo Lake Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,276 (-1%)	13mo	$252,500	$198	76
107 Douglas Fir Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,374 (+7%)	16mo	$320,000	$233	64
110 Violet Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+13%)	6mo	$300,000	$206	54
214 Pheasant Pl	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	8mo	$360,000	$268	54
206 Adams Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	7mo	$465,000	$332	45
803 Grouse Pt	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-1%)	20mo	$320,000	$252	44
205 Larch Oval	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (+8%)	22mo	$266,000	$192	42
102 Doe Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,222 (-5%)	23mo	$285,000	$233	42
754 Route 196	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-0%)	22mo	$140,000	$109	39
204 Palomino Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+10%)	20mo	$270,000	$191	34
609 Washington Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,143 (-11%)	23mo	$405,000	$354	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-105,549
• Equity at exit: $95,148

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.90×
• Total profit: $-186,787
• Equity at exit: $140,535

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,068/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$1,750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-1,988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,292

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,858	-5% $-1,923	+0% $-1,988	+5% $-2,054	+10% $-2,119
Rent	-10% $-2,129	-5% $-2,059	+0% $-1,988	+5% $-1,918	+10% $-1,848
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,873	-0.5pp $-1,930	base $-1,988	+0.5pp $-2,048	+1.0pp $-2,109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7694 Fawn Ln Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,800	$1.60	45d	1	1.44mi
5215 Sundew Ter Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,750	$1.46	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,750 · $21,000/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-10
   listed $229,900 Active 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   Adorable updated bi level with plenty of space. Large family room downstairs. includes 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Definitely a must see!NO showings until 04/13/2026

2. 2020-04-28
   soldstatus $149,900
3. 2020-04-27
   soldstatus $149,900 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   IMMACULATE BI-LEVEL 4BED/2BATH. New Custom Kitchen Cabinets and Stainless Steel Applicances. Fireplace and Family Room for all to enjoy. Bonus Room can be used for storage , master suite or game room - endless possibilities. NEW ROOF Oversized Paved Driveway and backyard outlined with Mature Pine and Oak Trees. This one is waiting for you! CALL TODAY for your private tour.

4. 2019-07-19
   listed $149,900 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   IMMACULATE BI-LEVEL 4BED/2BATH. New Custom Kitchen Cabinets and Stainless Steel Applicances. Fireplace and Family Room for all to enjoy. Bonus Room can be used for storage , master suite or game room - endless possibilities. NEW ROOF Oversized Paved Driveway and backyard outlined with Mature Pine and Oak Trees. This one is waiting for you! CALL TODAY for your private tour.

5. 2016-02-18
   soldstatus $42,000
6. 2015-12-26
   listed $44,900
7. 2008-04-14
   soldstatus $156,000
8. 2003-06-02
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,068 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,068 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,068
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$21,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$27,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,695
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Pocono

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #3166

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $229,900 LCAR
• 2020-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2020-04-27 Sold (MLS) $149,900 PMAR
• 2019-07-19 Listed $149,900 PMAR
• 2016-02-18 Sold (MLS) $42,000 PMAR
• 2015-12-26 Listed $44,900 PMAR
• 2008-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,068 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.