10932 Coral Reef Ln · Stockton, CA 95219

$596,503

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,403 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 $248/sqft · 8% below area Est $645k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining room and Great Room for easy entertaining and access to a patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A secondary bedroom and full-sized bathroom are also on the first floor and are ideal for accommodating overnight guests. Upstairs is a spacious owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet, along with two secondary bedrooms and a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $597k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (36.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manlio Silva Elementary (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 757 students, 59% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 632 students, 58% FRL); Bear Creek High (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,937 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($588k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $318,818 (46.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.85%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $645,270
• List price: $596,503
• Delta: -7.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10922 Shadowport Ct	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,483 (+3%)	5mo	$580,000	$234	70
10309 Ultar Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,463 (+2%)	0mo	$635,000	$258	69
6819 Mount Elbrus Way	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,380 (-1%)	12mo	$642,000	$270	58
6730 Mount Elbrus Way	0.73mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,381 (-1%)	4mo	$570,000	$239	56
10913 Mikas Pond Way	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,667 (+11%)	14mo	$646,000	$242	56
10024 Baltisan Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,205 (-8%)	2mo	$589,000	$267	55
10124 Wayfaring Dr	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,639 (+10%)	1mo	$630,000	$239	52
10055 Luciana Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,179 (-9%)	2mo	$545,000	$250	50
6918 Mauna Loa Way	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,205 (-8%)	3mo	$585,000	$265	49
5953 Pebblestone Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,129 (-11%)	8mo	$524,500	$246	44
7200 Sambucus Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,077 (-14%)	8mo	$635,000	$306	41
10526 Seahorn Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,143 (-11%)	12mo	$510,000	$238	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $249,969
• Equity at exit: $537,377

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $805,489
• Equity at exit: $1,158,874

Cash invested: $167,021 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,128
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,491/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-1,232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,748

Max offer price $378,812

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-895	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-1,232	+5% $-1,401	+10% $-1,570
Rent	-10% $-1,484	-5% $-1,358	+0% $-1,232	+5% $-1,106	+10% $-980
Rate	-1.0pp $-932	-0.5pp $-1,081	base $-1,232	+0.5pp $-1,387	+1.0pp $-1,544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,126
• Closing costs: $17,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7017 Overlook Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,095	$1.29	46d	1	0.04mi
10962 Admiral Cove Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2403	$3,200	$1.33	16d	1	0.12mi
6831 Oakum Way Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2318	$3,100	$1.34	46d	1	0.40mi
10831 Larboard Ct Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2160	$3,950	$1.83	46d	1	0.46mi
10100 Downy Birch Dr Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2639	$3,500	$1.33	23d	1	0.64mi
10210 Copco Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	2252	$3,100	$1.38	46d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $606,503 497-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $616,503 Active 497-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,491 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,533 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$3/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,413
• − Property taxes: −$4,491
• − Insurance: −$2,983
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,061
• − Management: −$3,061
• − Depreciation: −$17,353
• Taxable loss: −$26,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B