1 Napa Valley Cir · Madison, MS 39110

$395,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot Est $382k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you Looking for a CONVENIENT LOCATION!! WELL-MAINTAINED HOME!! SPLIT PLAN!!! this might be your next home. Upon entering you have foyer leading to the great room with vaulted ceiling with a beam, updated fireplace, built-ins, beautiful wood floors and fresh designer paint. One side of the home has 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. Kitchen has a large eat in dining space, updated kitchen, Microwave/oven combo, new Bosch dishwasher and Viking gas/convection range, breakfast bar, a lot of counterspace that cook will appreciate. Buyer will love the possibilities on how to use the versatile floor plan to suit your needs. The current owner has chosen to use the formal dining room as a sitting/sports memorabilia room. Off the great room is a sunroom which can be a great place to have your morning coffee, read a book, home office, or craft room as you exit the sunroom onto a large deck for entertaining or grilling complete with a covered area and a view of the beautiful, landscaped backyard. Other features updated lighting, fans and faucets, Master Bath with a soaker tub and a walk-in closet, irrigation system in the front and back, great curb appeal in an established neighborhood that is gated. Make an appointment today to see this home before its gone.

Key facts

• Great counterspace
• True foyer
• Large yard

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• TRUE FOYER
• BEAMED AND VAULTED CEILINGS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GREAT COUNTERSPACE
• SLEEK STAINLESS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.54 acre
• HOA & community: Has association; $400 annually; includes maintenance of grounds; Community features: Fishing, Lake

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Rooms total: 2 (includes Living Room and Kitchen)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Bar; Beamed ceilings; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar; Has fireplace (living room)
• Laundry & utility: Utilities connected: Electricity, Natural Gas, Water, Sewer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-928/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Avenue Lower Elementary (437 students, 99% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #6 of 179 statewide, top 3%, 1,154 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,416 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $382,452
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,393 (-2%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	71
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-1%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	70
41 Napa Valley Cir	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,590 (+6%)	1mo	$375,000	$145	69
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,351 (-4%)	1mo	$369,900	$157	63
57 Napa Valley Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,224 (-9%)	9mo	$389,000	$175	58
113 Darrowsby Pl	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,602 (+7%)	8mo	$415,000	$159	52
49 Wintergreen Rd	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,482 (+2%)	9mo	$339,000	$137	51
213 Kiowa Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,352 (-3%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	50
172 Sonnett Cir	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,380 (-2%)	8mo	$379,900	$160	48
279 Bayview Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-8%)	6mo	$374,500	$166	42
20 Moss Woods Cv	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,141 (-12%)	6mo	$335,000	$156	41
54 Moss Woods Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (-12%)	8mo	$354,900	$166	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-70,230
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-72,778
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,464/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $381,337

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $34	+0% $-77	+5% $-189	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-197	+0% $-77	+5% $43	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $23	base $-77	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	24d	1	0.58mi
345 Avonlea Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.05mi
1011 Mcdale Ln Madison, MS	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,500	$1.23	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gassecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $395,000 Active
3. 2025-10-17
   price $395,900
4. 2025-10-17
   status Active
5. 2025-10-11
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-11
   historical
7. 2025-10-08
   listed $399,900 Active
8. 2022-08-05
   soldstatus Closed 1289-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

   Are you Looking for a CONVENIENT LOCATION!! WELL-MAINTAINED HOME!! SPLIT PLAN!!! this might be your next home. Upon entering you have foyer leading to the great room with vaulted ceiling with a beam, updated fireplace, built-ins, beautiful wood floors and fresh designer paint. One side of the home has 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. Kitchen has a large eat in dining space, updated kitchen, Microwave/oven combo, new Bosch dishwasher and Viking gas/convection range, breakfast bar, a lot of counterspace that cook will appreciate. Buyer will love the possibilities on how to use the versatile floor plan to suit your needs. The current owner has chosen to use the formal dining room as a sitting/sports memorabilia room. Off the great room is a sunroom which can be a great place to have your morning coffee, read a book, home office, or craft room as you exit the sunroom onto a large deck for entertaining or grilling complete with a covered area and a view of the beautiful, landscaped backyard. Other features updated lighting, fans and faucets, Master Bath with a soaker tub and a walk-in closet, irrigation system in the front and back, great curb appeal in an established neighborhood that is gated. Make an appointment today to see this home before its gone.

9. 2022-08-05
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

   Are you Looking for a CONVENIENT LOCATION!! WELL-MAINTAINED HOME!! SPLIT PLAN!!! this might be your next home. Upon entering you have foyer leading to the great room with vaulted ceiling with a beam, updated fireplace, built-ins, beautiful wood floors and fresh designer paint. One side of the home has 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. Kitchen has a large eat in dining space, updated kitchen, Microwave/oven combo, new Bosch dishwasher and Viking gas/convection range, breakfast bar, a lot of counterspace that cook will appreciate. Buyer will love the possibilities on how to use the versatile floor plan to suit your needs. The current owner has chosen to use the formal dining room as a sitting/sports memorabilia room. Off the great room is a sunroom which can be a great place to have your morning coffee, read a book, home office, or craft room as you exit the sunroom onto a large deck for entertaining or grilling complete with a covered area and a view of the beautiful, landscaped backyard. Other features updated lighting, fans and faucets, Master Bath with a soaker tub and a walk-in closet, irrigation system in the front and back, great curb appeal in an established neighborhood that is gated. Make an appointment today to see this home before its gone.

10. 2022-07-11
    status Pending 1289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

    Are you Looking for a CONVENIENT LOCATION!! WELL-MAINTAINED HOME!! SPLIT PLAN!!! this might be your next home. Upon entering you have foyer leading to the great room with vaulted ceiling with a beam, updated fireplace, built-ins, beautiful wood floors and fresh designer paint. One side of the home has 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. Kitchen has a large eat in dining space, updated kitchen, Microwave/oven combo, new Bosch dishwasher and Viking gas/convection range, breakfast bar, a lot of counterspace that cook will appreciate. Buyer will love the possibilities on how to use the versatile floor plan to suit your needs. The current owner has chosen to use the formal dining room as a sitting/sports memorabilia room. Off the great room is a sunroom which can be a great place to have your morning coffee, read a book, home office, or craft room as you exit the sunroom onto a large deck for entertaining or grilling complete with a covered area and a view of the beautiful, landscaped backyard. Other features updated lighting, fans and faucets, Master Bath with a soaker tub and a walk-in closet, irrigation system in the front and back, great curb appeal in an established neighborhood that is gated. Make an appointment today to see this home before its gone.

11. 2022-07-07
    listed $360,000 Active 1289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1289 chars)

    Are you Looking for a CONVENIENT LOCATION!! WELL-MAINTAINED HOME!! SPLIT PLAN!!! this might be your next home. Upon entering you have foyer leading to the great room with vaulted ceiling with a beam, updated fireplace, built-ins, beautiful wood floors and fresh designer paint. One side of the home has 3 nice size bedrooms and hall bath. Kitchen has a large eat in dining space, updated kitchen, Microwave/oven combo, new Bosch dishwasher and Viking gas/convection range, breakfast bar, a lot of counterspace that cook will appreciate. Buyer will love the possibilities on how to use the versatile floor plan to suit your needs. The current owner has chosen to use the formal dining room as a sitting/sports memorabilia room. Off the great room is a sunroom which can be a great place to have your morning coffee, read a book, home office, or craft room as you exit the sunroom onto a large deck for entertaining or grilling complete with a covered area and a view of the beautiful, landscaped backyard. Other features updated lighting, fans and faucets, Master Bath with a soaker tub and a walk-in closet, irrigation system in the front and back, great curb appeal in an established neighborhood that is gated. Make an appointment today to see this home before its gone.

12. 2019-06-05
    soldstatus
13. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus
14. 2019-04-30
    listed $275,000
15. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus
16. 1993-02-11
    soldstatus
17. 1986-07-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$2,464
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,913
• − Management: −$2,913
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$7,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,888
• After-tax cash flow: $960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+43.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-08 Listed $395,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $395,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-10-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-08 Listed $399,900 MLSU
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-07-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-07-07 Listed $360,000 MLSU
• 2019-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-04-30 Listed $275,000 MLSU
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,464 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.