309 1st St E · Spencer, IA 51301

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1947 4,840 sqft lot $84/sqft · 36% below area Est $115k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Starter Home for First-Time Buyers! This cozy one-level home offers classic cottage charm with modern updates, including a new furnace and hot water heater (2024). The layout features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and a basement with potential for added living space. Structurally sound and move-in ready--just add your personal touches! Includes a detached garage, storage shed and a manageable yard. Affordable living with room to grow! Make your MOVE today!

Key facts

• One level home
• New furnace
• Hot water heater

Tags

• ONE LEVEL HOME
• CLASSIC COTTAGE CHARM
• NEW FURNACE
• HOT WATER HEATER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.7% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#168 in IA, #3,020 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer Community School District (town): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #114 of 289 in IA (top 39%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.04%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,010
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -21.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 E 3rd St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,041 (-3%)	6mo	$120,000	$115	79
117 E 2nd St	0.13mi	2/1.0	976 (-9%)	9mo	$128,000	$131	72
603 SE 5th Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,095 (+2%)	6mo	$50,000	$46	68
601 E Milw St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-6%)	3mo	$85,000	$84	67
525 E 2nd St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-7%)	4mo	$90,000	$90	67
32 W 1st St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,195 (+12%)	2mo	$114,000	$95	60
620 1st Ave SE	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+7%)	2mo	$23,500	$21	58
215 6th St SW	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (-3%)	5mo	$154,000	$148	56
918 E 8th St	0.64mi	2/1.0	960 (-10%)	10mo	$144,500	$151	45
811 1st Ave SW	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+12%)	3mo	$165,000	$138	40
409 E 9th St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (+12%)	10mo	$145,900	$121	40
302 E 9th St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+14%)	12mo	$137,500	$112	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $17,576
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $56,739
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51301

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $530	+0% $505	+5% $479	+10% $454
Rent	-10% $394	-5% $449	+0% $505	+5% $560	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $528	base $505	+0.5pp $481	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 9th St SW Unit 814-D6 Spencer, IA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,460	$1.19	44d	1	1.06mi
801 9th St SW Unit 1001-201 Spencer, IA	3.0	2.0	998	$1,345	$1.35	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $90,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Perfect Starter Home for First-Time Buyers! This cozy one-level home offers classic cottage charm with modern updates, including a new furnace and hot water heater (2024). The layout features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and a basement with potential for added living space. Structurally sound and move-in ready--just add your personal touches! Includes a detached garage, storage shed and a manageable yard. Affordable living with room to grow! Make your MOVE today!

17. 2025-12-03
    price $98,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Perfect Starter Home for First-Time Buyers! This cozy one-level home offers classic cottage charm with modern updates, including a new furnace and hot water heater (2024). The layout features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and a basement with potential for added living space. Structurally sound and move-in ready--just add your personal touches! Includes a detached garage, storage shed and a manageable yard. Affordable living with room to grow! Make your MOVE today!

18. 2025-10-23
    price $103,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Perfect Starter Home for First-Time Buyers! This cozy one-level home offers classic cottage charm with modern updates, including a new furnace and hot water heater (2024). The layout features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and a basement with potential for added living space. Structurally sound and move-in ready--just add your personal touches! Includes a detached garage, storage shed and a manageable yard. Affordable living with room to grow! Make your MOVE today!

19. 2025-10-01
    listed $107,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Perfect Starter Home for First-Time Buyers! This cozy one-level home offers classic cottage charm with modern updates, including a new furnace and hot water heater (2024). The layout features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and a basement with potential for added living space. Structurally sound and move-in ready--just add your personal touches! Includes a detached garage, storage shed and a manageable yard. Affordable living with room to grow! Make your MOVE today!

20. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $98,500
21. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus $98,500 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow that would make a great first home or investment property. This property features a great sized living room with a large window allowing in lots of natural light. In the basement you will find a family room and a non conforming bedroom.

22. 2022-06-02
    listed $99,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow that would make a great first home or investment property. This property features a great sized living room with a large window allowing in lots of natural light. In the basement you will find a family room and a non conforming bedroom.

23. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$154/yr (+$13/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $4,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926910
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,474
• Composite: 61.02/100
• National rank: #797
• State rank: #114 of 289 in IA

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #3020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencer, IA
• City population: 12,402
• Population (ZIP): 12,402

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,277 people
• By 2030: 16,073 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 15,638 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 15,315 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 15,026 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 14,638 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.43%
• Current HPI: 192.1741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+57.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $90,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $98,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $103,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $107,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $98,500 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2022-06-02 Listed $99,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2014-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · -13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.