1384 Lake Dr · Richmond Hill, GA 31320

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1999 0.37 ac lot $243/sqft · 20% above area Est $252k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the city and enjoy peaceful living in this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom ranch home in Lake George! This move-in-ready property features a new 30-year architectural roof, a stainless steel appliance package, and elegant quartz countertops. The spacious primary suite includes a large custom-designed walk-in closet, providing exceptional storage and organization. Residents also enjoy access to community amenities, including a lake, dock, and playground area. Agent is licensed and a principal seller in the State of Georgia.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Community lake
• Dock

Tags

• RENOVATED RANCH STYLE
• 30 YEAR ARCHITECTURAL ROOF
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM MASTER CLOSET
• COMMUNITY LAKE
• DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Hwy 17 to Limerick Road, slight left onto Lake Drive
• HOA & community: Community marina; Lake access; Playground in community

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Private dock; Interior lot; Asphalt road access; Has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.1% in Richmond Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#122 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $270k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,042 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,018
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: 7.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,769
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-23,179
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31320

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,437/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
491 Lake Rosalind Dr Midway, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	13d	1	1.27mi
840 E 1st St Midway, GA	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 535-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $269,900 Active 17 DOM

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Escape the city and enjoy peaceful living in this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom ranch home in Lake George! This move-in-ready property features a new 30-year architectural roof, a stainless steel appliance package, and elegant quartz countertops. The spacious primary suite includes a large custom-designed walk-in closet, providing exceptional storage and organization. Residents also enjoy access to community amenities, including a lake, dock, and playground area. Agent is licensed and a principal seller in the State of Georgia.

14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
19. 2026-05-09
    listed $275,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Escape the city and enjoy peaceful living in this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom ranch home in Lake George! This move-in-ready property features a new 30-year architectural roof, a stainless steel appliance package, and elegant quartz countertops. The spacious primary suite includes a large custom-designed walk-in closet, providing exceptional storage and organization. Residents also enjoy access to community amenities, including a lake, dock, and playground area. Agent is licensed and a principal seller in the State of Georgia.

20. 2026-05-09
    listed $275,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Escape the city and enjoy peaceful living in this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom ranch home in Lake George! This move-in-ready property features a new 30-year architectural roof, a stainless steel appliance package, and elegant quartz countertops. The spacious primary suite includes a large custom-designed walk-in closet, providing exceptional storage and organization. Residents also enjoy access to community amenities, including a lake, dock, and playground area. Agent is licensed and a principal seller in the State of Georgia.

21. 2025-08-16
    soldstatus $125,000
22. 2025-04-01
    soldstatus $94,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,437 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,483 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,437
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Richmond Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #8778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 37,406
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 10,794
• Household income: $77,195
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 33% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.67%
• Current HPI: 239.3136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+186.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $269,900 HABR
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $269,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — HABR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HABR
• 2026-05-09 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $275,000 HABR
• 2025-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,150 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,437 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.